Sport Picks

Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa

Match Events

Marcelo

12'

Borges D.

26'

Faria B.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Leiria host Lusitania FC in the Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Leiria at 1.38 goals for, 1.5 against; Lusitania FC at 0.88 for, 1.38 against. Past meetings favor Leiria slightly — 2-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 5, 2026, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 1.19, favoring Leiria. Leiria in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Leiria

44%

Draws

20%

Lusitania FC

Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Leiria has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Lusitania FC.
Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 44% draw probability.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 provide steady trend data.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%

Leiria Clean Sheet 20%

Lusitania FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Leiria	Lusitania FC
Matches Played	29	27
Wins	11	9
Draws	9	7
Losses	9	11
Goals Scored	1.38	0.88
Goals Conceded	1.5	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2026 Liga Portugal 2

Leiria vs Lusitania FC

Possession: 54% - 53% Cards: 1 - 0

0:0

Nov 9, 2025 Liga Portugal 2

Lusitania FC vs Leiria

Possession: 43% - 58% Cards: 4 - 2

1:1

Jun 2, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A

Leiria vs Lusitania FC

Possession: 45% - 50% Cards: 3 - 3

2:0

May 25, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A

Lusitania FC vs Leiria

Possession: 54% - 51% Cards: 3 - 1

2:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leiria 36 / 100

Lusitania FC 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Leiria Lusitania FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LUS Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leiria scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Lusitania FC let in goals in 78% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Leiria went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Lusitania FC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Leiria VS Lusitania FC

1.38 Goals Scored 0.88

1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38

75% Over 1.5 75%

63% Over 2.5 50%

38% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Maritimo	34	20	6	8	50:29	66
2	Academico Viseu	34	17	8	9	58:33	59
3	Torreense	34	18	5	11	46:33	59
4	Vizela	34	14	9	11	39:40	51
5	FC Porto B	34	15	6	13	41:42	51
6	Leiria	34	13	11	10	52:46	50
7	Leixoes	34	15	5	14	46:55	50
8	Feirense	34	12	10	12	37:40	46
9	Chaves	34	13	6	15	42:40	45
10	Benfica B	34	11	11	12	43:44	44
11	FC Felgueiras	34	11	11	12	34:38	44
12	Lusitania FC	34	11	10	13	44:52	43
13	Sporting CP B	34	13	3	18	41:34	42
14	Penafiel	34	11	8	15	37:39	41
15	Portimonense	34	11	7	16	39:49	40
16	SC Farense	34	10	10	14	31:37	40
17	Pacos Ferreira	34	9	12	13	34:48	39
18	Oliveirense	34	8	10	16	34:49	34