Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Leiria vs Portimonense

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Leiria
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Masaki H.
30' Event
Nakajima S.
Penalty Missed
30'
Pancadas Casimiro J. D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Portugal 2 game between Leiria and Portimonense finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leiria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Leiria
20%
Draws
19%
Portimonense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Leiria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Portimonense haven't matched Leiria's recent run of results.
  • 61% — that's where the model lands on Leiria taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Leiria here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Leiria Clean Sheet 68%
Portimonense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leiria Portimonense
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 10
Draws 6 6
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.66 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Leiria vs Portimonense
1:0
Feb 28, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Leiria vs Portimonense
1:0
Oct 4, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Portimonense vs Leiria
1:1
Jan 26, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Leiria vs Portimonense
1:0
Aug 17, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Portimonense vs Leiria
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leiria Compare

Top Goalscorer Ondo N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Portimonense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leiria 59 / 100
Portimonense 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leiria Portimonense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leiria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Portimonense conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Leiria remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Leiria scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Leiria VS Portimonense
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Leiria

(Home)
19 Sept
O Elvas CAD
0 : 2
Leiria
13 Sept
Amarante FC
2 : 2
Leiria
06 Sept
Leiria
1 : 0
Portimonense
28 Aug
Leiria
2 : 0
Tondela
22 Aug
Leixoes
2 : 4
Leiria
Page 1 of 6

Portimonense

(Away)
19 Sept
Castro Daire
0 : 1
Portimonense
12 Sept
Portimonense
0 : 2
Tondela
06 Sept
Leiria
1 : 0
Portimonense
29 Aug
Portimonense
0 : 2
Leixoes
21 Aug
Benfica B
1 : 1
Portimonense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lusitania FC 6 5 1 0 11:4 16
2 Penafiel 6 4 1 1 13:5 13
3 Sporting CP B 6 4 0 2 8:6 12
4 Vizela 6 3 2 1 7:4 11
5 Benfica B 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
6 Leiria 6 3 1 2 10:7 10
7 Leixoes 6 3 1 2 8:6 10
8 Academica 6 3 0 3 8:10 9
9 Tondela 6 3 0 3 7:6 9
10 SC Farense 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
11 Portimonense 6 2 1 3 4:6 7
12 AFS 6 1 3 2 6:6 6
13 FC Felgueiras 6 1 3 2 5:6 6
14 Torreense 6 1 3 2 7:9 6
15 Amarante FC 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
16 Chaves 5 1 1 3 5:9 4
17 FC Porto B 6 1 1 4 4:13 4
18 Feirense 6 0 1 5 1:8 1
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 2027/2028 (Main)