Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Leiria vs Tondela

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Leiria
Our Tip

Match Events

38'
Carraca
43'
Tomane
48'
Fernandes R.

AI Match Summary

Leiria in this Liga Portugal 2 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leiria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Leiria
15%
Draws
35%
Tondela
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leiria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Leiria lately — more wins on the board than Tondela.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Leiria taking it.
  • Regular Liga Portugal 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Leiria Clean Sheet 68%
Tondela Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leiria Tondela
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 12 11
Draws 6 9
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.66 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Leiria vs Tondela
2:0
May 16, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Leiria vs Tondela
0:2
Jan 4, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Tondela vs Leiria
1:4
Aug 2, 2024 Club Friendly
Leiria vs Tondela
2:1
Feb 24, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Tondela vs Leiria
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leiria Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandez P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ondo N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Tondela Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leiria 95 / 100
Tondela 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leiria Tondela

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leiria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Leiria stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Leiria scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Tondela let in goals in 76% of their last 34 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Leiria VS Tondela
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Leiria

(Home)
19 Sept
O Elvas CAD
0 : 2
Leiria
13 Sept
Amarante FC
2 : 2
Leiria
06 Sept
Leiria
1 : 0
Portimonense
28 Aug
Leiria
2 : 0
Tondela
22 Aug
Leixoes
2 : 4
Leiria
Page 1 of 6

Tondela

(Away)
19 Sept
Imortal
1 : 5
Tondela
12 Sept
Portimonense
0 : 2
Tondela
05 Sept
Tondela
3 : 0
FC Porto B
28 Aug
Leiria
2 : 0
Tondela
21 Aug
Tondela
0 : 2
Academica
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lusitania FC 6 5 1 0 11:4 16
2 Penafiel 6 4 1 1 13:5 13
3 Sporting CP B 6 4 0 2 8:6 12
4 Vizela 6 3 2 1 7:4 11
5 Benfica B 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
6 Leiria 6 3 1 2 10:7 10
7 Leixoes 6 3 1 2 8:6 10
8 Academica 6 3 0 3 8:10 9
9 Tondela 6 3 0 3 7:6 9
10 SC Farense 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
11 Portimonense 6 2 1 3 4:6 7
12 AFS 6 1 3 2 6:6 6
13 FC Felgueiras 6 1 3 2 5:6 6
14 Torreense 6 1 3 2 7:9 6
15 Amarante FC 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
16 Chaves 5 1 1 3 5:9 4
17 FC Porto B 6 1 1 4 4:13 4
18 Feirense 6 0 1 5 1:8 1
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 2027/2028 (Main)