Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Leixoes vs Leiria

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 Estádio do Mar, Matosinhos
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Michel D.
17' Event
Munoz J.
20' Event
Marcelo
Assist: van der Gaag J.

AI Match Summary

Leiria in this Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leiria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Leixoes
15%
Draws
34%
Leiria
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leixoes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Leixoes have won more games recently than Leiria.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Leixoes taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Leiria here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Leixoes Clean Sheet 68%
Leiria Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leixoes Leiria
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 13
Draws 5 6
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.87 1.7
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Leixoes vs Leiria
2:4
Mar 8, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Leixoes vs Leiria
1:4
Oct 25, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Leiria vs Leixoes
1:3
Mar 30, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Leixoes vs Leiria
0:1
Nov 3, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Leiria vs Leixoes
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leixoes Compare

Top Goalscorer Araujo C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Leiria Compare

Top Goalscorer Michel D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Munoz J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leixoes 59 / 100
Leiria 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leixoes Leiria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leixoes Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leixoes found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Leiria let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Leixoes stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Leixoes VS Leiria
2.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Leixoes

(Home)
29 Aug
Portimonense
0 : 2
Leixoes
22 Aug
Leixoes
2 : 4
Leiria
16 Aug
Leixoes
1 : 0
Tondela
10 Aug
Benfica B
1 : 0
Leixoes
01 Aug
Leixoes
6 : 2
Casa Pia
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Leiria

(Away)
28 Aug
Leiria
2 : 0
Tondela
22 Aug
Leixoes
2 : 4
Leiria
15 Aug
Leiria
1 : 2
Benfica B
09 Aug
Vizela
1 : 0
Leiria
28 Jul
Las Palmas
3 : 2
Leiria
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maritimo 34 20 6 8 50:29 66
2 Academico Viseu 34 17 8 9 58:33 59
3 Torreense 34 18 5 11 46:33 59
4 Vizela 34 14 9 11 39:40 51
5 FC Porto B 34 15 6 13 41:42 51
6 Leiria 34 13 11 10 52:46 50
7 Leixoes 34 15 5 14 46:55 50
8 Feirense 34 12 10 12 37:40 46
9 Chaves 34 13 6 15 42:40 45
10 Benfica B 34 11 11 12 43:44 44
11 FC Felgueiras 34 11 11 12 34:38 44
12 Lusitania FC 34 11 10 13 44:52 43
13 Sporting CP B 34 13 3 18 41:34 42
14 Penafiel 34 11 8 15 37:39 41
15 Portimonense 34 11 7 16 39:49 40
16 SC Farense 34 10 10 14 31:37 40
17 Pacos Ferreira 34 9 12 13 34:48 39
18 Oliveirense 34 8 10 16 34:49 34
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Main)