Sport Picks

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Leixoes vs Leiria

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 Estádio do Mar, Matosinhos
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Rochez B.
Assist: Araujo C.
15' Event
Munoz J.
18'
Commey S.

AI Match Summary

Leiria in this Liga Portugal 2 matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leiria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Leixoes
15%
Draws
20%
Leiria
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leixoes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Leixoes lately — more wins on the board than Leiria.
  • Win probability leans Leixoes's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Liga Portugal 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Leiria here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Leixoes Clean Sheet 68%
Leiria Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leixoes Leiria
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 15 10
Draws 5 6
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.82 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.46 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Leixoes vs Leiria
2:4
Mar 8, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Leixoes vs Leiria
1:4
Oct 25, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Leiria vs Leixoes
1:3
Mar 30, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Leixoes vs Leiria
0:1
Nov 3, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Leiria vs Leixoes
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leixoes Compare

Top Goalscorer Rochez B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Luccas Paraizo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Leiria Compare

Top Goalscorer Munoz J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fernandez P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leixoes 95 / 100
Leiria 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leixoes Leiria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leixoes Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Leixoes scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Leiria's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

Solid form: Leixoes remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Leixoes VS Leiria
2.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Leixoes

(Home)
16 Aug
Leixoes
1 : 0
Tondela
10 Aug
Benfica B
1 : 0
Leixoes
01 Aug
Leixoes
6 : 2
Casa Pia
29 Jul
Leixoes
3 : 2
Vizela
18 Jul
Nacional
3 : 3
Leixoes
Page 1 of 6

Leiria

(Away)
15 Aug
Leiria
1 : 2
Benfica B
09 Aug
Vizela
1 : 0
Leiria
28 Jul
Las Palmas
3 : 2
Leiria
15 Jul
Leiria
2 : 0
AD Marco 09
11 Jul
Leiria
0 : 1
Alverca
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Academica 3 3 0 0 7:1 9
2 Portimonense 3 2 1 0 4:1 7
3 Benfica B 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
4 SC Farense 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
5 Lusitania FC 2 2 0 0 3:0 6
6 Sporting CP B 2 2 0 0 2:0 6
7 Leiria 3 1 0 2 5:5 3
8 Vizela 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
9 Leixoes 3 1 0 2 3:5 3
10 Tondela 3 1 0 2 2:4 3
11 FC Felgueiras 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
12 Torreense 2 0 1 1 3:4 1
13 Penafiel 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
14 AFS 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
15 Feirense 2 0 1 1 0:1 1
16 Amarante FC 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
17 Chaves 2 0 0 2 1:5 0
18 FC Porto B 2 0 0 2 1:5 0
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 2027/2028 (Main)