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Leixoes vs Tondela

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 Estádio do Mar, Matosinhos
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Fangueiro C.
38'
Agra S.
38'
Tavares H.

AI Match Summary

Leixoes in this Liga Portugal 2 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leixoes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Leixoes
15%
Draws
34%
Tondela
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leixoes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Leixoes lately — more wins on the board than Tondela.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Leixoes taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Leixoes Clean Sheet 68%
Tondela Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leixoes Tondela
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 17 7
Draws 5 9
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.93 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Leixoes vs Tondela
1:0
Mar 10, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Leixoes vs Tondela
0:1
Oct 12, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Tondela vs Leixoes
2:1
Mar 3, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Leixoes vs Tondela
1:1
Oct 7, 2023 Liga Portugal 2
Tondela vs Leixoes
4:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leixoes 59 / 100
Tondela 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leixoes Tondela

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leixoes Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leixoes scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

Tondela's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Leixoes went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Leixoes VS Tondela
2.5 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Leixoes

(Home)
06 Sept
Leixoes
3 : 1
Amarante FC
29 Aug
Portimonense
0 : 2
Leixoes
22 Aug
Leixoes
2 : 4
Leiria
16 Aug
Leixoes
1 : 0
Tondela
10 Aug
Benfica B
1 : 0
Leixoes
Page 1 of 6

Tondela

(Away)
05 Sept
Tondela
3 : 0
FC Porto B
28 Aug
Leiria
2 : 0
Tondela
21 Aug
Tondela
0 : 2
Academica
16 Aug
Leixoes
1 : 0
Tondela
08 Aug
Tondela
2 : 1
Amarante FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lusitania FC 5 4 1 0 9:3 13
2 Sporting CP B 5 4 0 1 7:4 12
3 Penafiel 5 3 1 1 11:4 10
4 Vizela 5 3 1 1 5:2 10
5 Leiria 5 3 0 2 8:5 9
6 Academica 5 3 0 2 8:7 9
7 Leixoes 5 3 0 2 8:6 9
8 SC Farense 4 2 1 1 7:5 7
9 Portimonense 5 2 1 2 4:4 7
10 Benfica B 5 2 1 2 4:5 7
11 FC Felgueiras 5 1 3 1 4:4 6
12 Tondela 5 2 0 3 5:6 6
13 AFS 5 1 2 2 6:6 5
14 Torreense 5 1 2 2 7:9 5
15 Amarante FC 5 1 1 3 3:6 4
16 FC Porto B 5 1 0 4 2:11 3
17 Chaves 4 0 1 3 4:9 1
18 Feirense 5 0 1 4 1:7 1
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 2027/2028 (Main)