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Lemense vs Penapolense

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Lemense Logo

Lemense

1 - 0
FT
Penapolense Logo

Penapolense

Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Americo R.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A4 game between Lemense and Penapolense finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lemense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Lemense
35%
Draws
53%
Penapolense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Penapolense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Penapolense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Penapolense's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Lemense Clean Sheet 14%
Penapolense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lemense Penapolense
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 9 13
Draws 7 13
Losses 14 5
Goals Scored 0.87 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.2 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 4, 2026 Paulista A4
Lemense vs Penapolense
1:0
Feb 28, 2020 Paulista A2
Lemense vs Penapolense
2:1
Mar 10, 2019 Paulista A2
Penapolense vs Lemense
1:2
Apr 2, 2011 Paulista A3
Lemense vs Penapolense
1:2
Feb 27, 2011 Paulista A3
Penapolense vs Lemense
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lemense 11 / 100
Penapolense 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lemense Penapolense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penapolense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lemense scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Penapolense has conceded goals in 65% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Lemense stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lemense VS Penapolense
0.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lemense

(Home)
18 Apr
Inter de Bebedouro
2 : 0
Lemense
11 Apr
Lemense
0 : 2
Inter de Bebedouro
04 Apr
Lemense
1 : 1
Sao-Carlense
28 Mar
ECUS SP
2 : 0
Lemense
25 Mar
Lemense
0 : 0
Jabaquara
Page 1 of 6

Penapolense

(Away)
09 May
Inter de Bebedouro
1 : 1
Penapolense
06 May
Penapolense
2 : 1
Inter de Bebedouro
02 May
Sao Caetano
2 : 2
Penapolense
25 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 1
Sao Caetano
18 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 2
Taquaritinga
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)