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Lens II vs Auxerre II

France France

National 2 - Group B 2021/2022
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AI Match Summary

This National 2 - Group B 2021/2022 encounter between Lens II and Auxerre II promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Lens II averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in recent matches. Auxerre II shows a form average of 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Lens II, 1 wins for Auxerre II, and 3 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 09.04.22 ended in a 0:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 2.50 for Lens II and 0.99 for Auxerre II, suggesting the primary value lies in the Auxerre II double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Lens II
35%
Draws
39%
Auxerre II
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Auxerre II

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Lens II picked up more points recently compared to Auxerre II.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.50 vs 0.99 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 39%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Lens II Clean Sheet 23%
Auxerre II Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lens II Auxerre II
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 5 13
Draws 13 9
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.03 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 4.00 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

09.04.22 National 2 - Group B
Lens II vs Auxerre II
0:1
23.10.21 National 2 - Group B
Auxerre II vs Lens II
1:1
27.02.21 National 2 - Group B
Auxerre II vs Lens II
0:0
19.09.20 National 2 - Group B
Lens II vs Auxerre II
2:2
08.04.12 National 2 - Group A
Auxerre II vs Lens II
0:2

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Lens II

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)
Attacking Style Keep the ball
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Auxerre II

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lens II 28 / 100
Auxerre II 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lens II Auxerre II

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Auxerre II or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +44.6%
5.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.2%
3.03
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Lens II 29%
Auxerre II 31%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Lens II 25%
Auxerre II 41%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Lens II 26%
Auxerre II 39%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Lens II 27%
Auxerre II 37%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Lens II 23%
Auxerre II 43%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Lens II 30%
Auxerre II 45%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Lens II attacking → ← attacking Auxerre II

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lens II have found the net in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Auxerre II have conceded at least one goal in 64% of their last 36 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 1.80 goals per match.

Lens II remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Auxerre II suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

28 Points in last 5 48
4.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Paris 13 Atletico30206440:1766
2Fleury-Merogis30205554:2365
3Beauvais30166830:2654
4FC Bobigny 93301212642:3848
5Epinal30138949:3147
6St. Maur Lusitanos301114532:2247
7Auxerre II301261233:3542
8Reims II301071342:4337
9St Quentin308121036:3936
10Sainte-Genevieve308111130:3435
11Haguenau30971445:5334
12Belfort30971434:4334
13Metz II30871531:3931
14Schiltigheim305131224:3328
15Lens II304121426:4624
16Sannois30732020:4624