Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Leones del Norte vs Emelec

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Velez C.
22'
Griffith V.
32'
Arroyo R.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Leones del Norte and Emelec finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leones del Norte.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Leones del Norte
20%
Draws
38%
Emelec
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Leones del Norte

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Leones del Norte come out ahead of Emelec on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Leones del Norte's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Leones del Norte Clean Sheet 20%
Emelec Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leones del Norte Emelec
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 9
Draws 10 7
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.5 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Liga Pro
Leones del Norte vs Emelec
2:0
Oct 8, 2025 Copa Ecuador
Leones del Norte vs Emelec
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leones del Norte Compare

Top Goalscorer Portocarrero S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Griffa E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Emelec Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leones del Norte 42 / 100
Emelec 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leones del Norte Emelec

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leones del Norte went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Leones del Norte scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Emelec's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Scoring Trends

Leones del Norte VS Emelec
1.5 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Independiente del Valle18141340:1943
2Aucas1895421:1632
3Barcelona SC1987421:1431
4U. Catolica1985629:1829
5Macara1985620:1929
6LDU Quito1984719:1528
7Dep. Cuenca1984719:2128
8Leones del Norte1966720:2024
9Emelec1866614:1724
10Tecnico U.19721019:2023
11Orense1865722:2423
12Guayaquil City1965817:2223
13Mushuc Runa1956824:2921
14Libertad1956818:2521
15Delfin1955911:1820
16Manta1934127:2413