Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Leones del Norte vs Libertad - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra, Ibarra
Leones del Norte Logo

Leones del Norte

Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
09:00 PM
Libertad Logo

Libertad

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Leones del Norte host Libertad in the Liga Pro. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Leones del Norte have averaged 1.07 scored and 1.21 conceded recently, against Libertad's 1.17 scored and 1.14 conceded. Past meetings favor Leones del Norte slightly — 1-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Oct 9, 2026, ending 3:0. xG projections (1.06 - 1.38) back Leones del Norte to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Leones del Norte
30%
Draws
47%
Libertad
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Libertad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Libertad's 1.17 goals per match outpaces what Leones del Norte have produced (1.07).
  • Model gives Libertad a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Leones del Norte Clean Sheet 17%
Libertad Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leones del Norte Libertad
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 11
Draws 7 7
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.07 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Leones del Norte
3:0
Jul 4, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Leones del Norte
1:3
Feb 28, 2026 Liga Pro
Leones del Norte vs Libertad
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leones del Norte 20 / 100
Libertad 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leones del Norte Libertad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Libertad Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leones del Norte found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Libertad let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Leones del Norte went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Leones del Norte VS Libertad
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Leones del Norte

(Home)
09 Oct
Libertad
3 : 0
Leones del Norte
19 Sept
Guayaquil City
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
13 Sept
Leones del Norte
0 : 1
Tecnico U.
08 Sept
Mushuc Runa
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
03 Sept
Leones del Norte
1 : 0
Orense
Page 1 of 6

Libertad

(Away)
09 Oct
Libertad
3 : 0
Leones del Norte
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
07 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Libertad
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
7 Libertad 32 13 8 11 38:35 47
8 Guayaquil City 32 11 10 11 37:39 43
9 Leones del Norte 32 10 10 12 32:36 40
10 Emelec 32 10 9 13 28:39 39
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Qualification)