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Leones del Norte vs San Antonio

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Serie B 2025 Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Leones del Norte play San Antonio in the Serie B 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Leones del Norte averaged 1 goals scored and 1 conceded. San Antonio averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. In past meetings, Leones del Norte won 3, San Antonio won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Oct 16, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Leones del Norte and 1.00 for San Antonio. This points to a Leones del Norte double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Leones del Norte
35%
Draws
26%
San Antonio
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Leones del Norte

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Leones del Norte picked up more points recently compared to San Antonio.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Leones del Norte Clean Sheet 23%
San Antonio Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leones del Norte San Antonio
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 6
Draws 10 13
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1 1.14
Goals Conceded 1 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 16, 2025 Serie B
Leones del Norte vs San Antonio
1:1
Sep 17, 2025 Serie B
San Antonio vs Leones del Norte
1:1
Aug 10, 2025 Serie B
San Antonio vs Leones del Norte
1:2
May 27, 2025 Serie B
Leones del Norte vs San Antonio
1:0
Sep 18, 2024 Serie B
San Antonio vs Leones del Norte
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leones del Norte Compare

Top Goalscorer Arroyo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

San Antonio Compare

Top Goalscorer Yepez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leones del Norte 40 / 100
San Antonio 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leones del Norte San Antonio

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Leones del Norte or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.5%
3.23
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Leones del Norte attacking → ← attacking San Antonio

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leones del Norte scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

San Antonio let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Leones del Norte went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

San Antonio lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 31
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Guayaquil City321610644:2255
2Leones del Norte321412636:2354
3Independiente Juniors321381139:3447
4Nueve de Octubre3212101035:2646
5Gualaceo321291139:4746
6San Antonio3210101234:4040