Sport Picks

Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A

Match Events

66'

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Leones Negros 2 host Tritones Vallarta in the Liga Premier Serie A. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Leones Negros 2 have averaged 1.88 scored and 0.88 conceded recently, against Tritones Vallarta's 1 scored and 0.38 conceded. Head-to-head, Leones Negros 2 have won 2 to Tritones Vallarta's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 11, 2026, ending 1:0. The numbers (1.13 xG vs 0.94) point toward Leones Negros 2. Leones Negros 2 in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Leones Negros 2

39%

Draws

30%

Tritones Vallarta

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Leones Negros 2 has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Tritones Vallarta.
Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Liga Premier Serie A provide steady trend data.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%

Leones Negros 2 Clean Sheet 20%

Tritones Vallarta Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Leones Negros 2	Tritones Vallarta
Matches Played	34	30
Wins	19	16
Draws	2	3
Losses	13	11
Goals Scored	1.88	1
Goals Conceded	0.88	0.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A

Leones Negros 2 vs Tritones Vallarta

Possession: 58% - 42% Cards: 1 - 4

1:0

Nov 22, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A

Tritones Vallarta vs Leones Negros 2

Possession: 46% - 44% Cards: 1 - 0

1:0

Mar 22, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A

Tritones Vallarta vs Leones Negros 2

Possession: 53% - 41% Cards: 3 - 4

1:2

Nov 9, 2024 Liga Premier Serie A

Leones Negros 2 vs Tritones Vallarta

Possession: 54% - 43% Cards: 2 - 0

1:1

Mar 9, 2024 Liga Premier Serie A

Leones Negros 2 vs Tritones Vallarta

Possession: 42% - 42% Cards: 2 - 0

0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leones Negros 2 32 / 100

Tritones Vallarta 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Leones Negros 2 Tritones Vallarta

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TRI Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leones Negros 2 scored in 74% of their last 34 games.

Tritones Vallarta let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Leones Negros 2 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Tritones Vallarta lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Leones Negros 2 VS Tritones Vallarta

1.88 Goals Scored 1

0.88 Goals Conceded 0.38

75% Over 1.5 38%

63% Over 2.5 0%

25% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alacranes de Durango	26	21	2	3	71:16	74
2	Tigres de Alica	26	17	3	6	46:25	56
3	Cimarrones de Sonora	26	15	7	4	46:19	54
4	Leones Negros 2	26	16	2	8	42:26	53
5	Tecos	26	14	4	8	49:34	49
6	Tritones Vallarta	26	15	1	10	32:27	46
7	Mineros de Fresnillo	26	11	4	11	40:41	39
8	Los Cabos United	26	11	3	12	37:40	37
9	Guerreros de Autlan	26	8	5	13	38:42	32
10	UA Zacatecas	26	8	4	14	32:49	29
11	Ensenada FC	26	8	2	16	30:55	28
12	Reboceros de La Piedad	26	7	1	18	39:66	23
13	Zapotlanejo	26	6	1	19	39:73	21
14	Colima FC	26	4	3	19	24:52	17

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Apodaca	26	21	2	3	47:19	66
2	FC Santiago	26	14	7	5	43:21	51
3	Zacatepec	26	12	8	6	29:15	45
4	Halcones de Zapopan	26	11	6	9	44:27	44
5	Calor De San Pedro	26	12	7	7	37:26	44
6	Gavilanes de Matamoros	26	12	5	9	31:22	44
7	Lobos ULMX	26	11	6	9	33:28	40
8	Correcaminos 2	26	9	7	10	27:25	36
9	Chilpancingo	26	9	8	9	33:41	35
10	Cordobes FC	26	8	6	12	29:30	30
11	Zitacuaro	26	6	10	10	22:31	28
12	CS Canamy	26	5	8	13	33:53	26
13	Ciervos	26	4	4	18	20:50	18
14	Atletico Hidalgo	26	4	4	18	22:62	16

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Racing de Veracruz	24	21	3	0	55:9	71
2	Deportiva Venados	24	15	4	5	61:25	52
3	Tapachula	24	13	0	11	51:35	44
4	Celaya	24	12	4	8	42:32	43
5	Inter Playa Del Carmen	24	13	4	7	35:28	42
6	Montaneses	24	12	2	10	35:28	38
7	Pioneros	24	10	3	11	35:35	35
8	Jaguares De Chiapas	24	9	4	11	33:32	34
9	Heroes de Zaci	24	10	2	12	33:46	34
10	Chapulineros	24	5	8	11	21:33	23
11	Canoneros FC	24	7	1	16	25:49	22
12	Neza FC	24	5	2	17	25:73	19
13	Dragones Toluca	24	4	3	17	21:47	17