Sport Picks

Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A

UA Zacatecas

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This Liga Premier Serie A encounter between Leones Negros 2 and UA Zacatecas promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Leones Negros 2 averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in recent matches. UA Zacatecas shows a form average of 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Leones Negros 2, 2 wins for UA Zacatecas, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 24.01.26 ended in a 0:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.88 for Leones Negros 2 and 1.06 for UA Zacatecas, suggesting the primary value lies in the Leones Negros 2 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%

Leones Negros 2

15%

Draws

30%

UA Zacatecas

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leones Negros 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence

Leones Negros 2 picked up more points recently compared to UA Zacatecas.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 1.06 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 51%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%

Leones Negros 2 Clean Sheet 22%

UA Zacatecas Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Leones Negros 2	UA Zacatecas
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	17	9
Draws	2	4
Losses	11	17
Goals Scored	1.47	1.2
Goals Conceded	1.17	1.97
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

24.01.26 Liga Premier Serie A

Leones Negros 2 vs UA Zacatecas

Possession: 43% - 44% Cards: 2 - 0

0:1

06.09.25 Liga Premier Serie A

UA Zacatecas vs Leones Negros 2

Possession: 43% - 47% Cards: 2 - 4

0:0

15.02.25 Liga Premier Serie A

Leones Negros 2 vs UA Zacatecas

Possession: 57% - 43% Cards: 2 - 2

2:1

13.10.24 Liga Premier Serie A

UA Zacatecas vs Leones Negros 2

Possession: 57% - 54% Cards: 4 - 1

0:1

16.03.24 Liga Premier Serie A

Leones Negros 2 vs UA Zacatecas

Possession: 57% - 48% Cards: 1 - 3

2:3

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Leones Negros 2

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)

Attacking Style Keep the ball

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

UA Zacatecas

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leones Negros 2 54 / 100

UA Zacatecas 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Leones Negros 2 UA Zacatecas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leones Negros 2 Win (1)

Secondary Pick Leones Negros 2 & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.1%

2.13

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.2%

2.22

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Leones Negros 2 is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.

Leones Negros 2 61%

UA Zacatecas 24%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

UA Zacatecas will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of Leones Negros 2's attacks.

Leones Negros 2 52%

UA Zacatecas 32%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Leones Negros 2 to create chances through sustained possession before the break.

Leones Negros 2 55%

UA Zacatecas 30%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments at half-time will see Leones Negros 2 vary their attacking width.

Leones Negros 2 58%

UA Zacatecas 29%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for UA Zacatecas, allowing Leones Negros 2's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.

Leones Negros 2 50%

UA Zacatecas 33%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect a final offensive push from Leones Negros 2, while UA Zacatecas takes risks to salvage a result.

Leones Negros 2 63%

UA Zacatecas 35%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Leones Negros 2 attacking → ← attacking UA Zacatecas

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leones Negros 2 have found the net in 70% of their last 30 matches.

UA Zacatecas have conceded at least one goal in 73% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.00 goals per match.

Leones Negros 2 remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

UA Zacatecas suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 31

1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alacranes de Durango	26	21	2	3	71:16	74
2	Tigres de Alica	26	17	3	6	46:25	56
3	Cimarrones de Sonora	26	15	7	4	46:19	54
4	Leones Negros 2	26	16	2	8	42:26	53
5	Tecos	26	14	4	8	49:34	49
6	Tritones Vallarta	26	15	1	10	32:27	46
7	Mineros de Fresnillo	26	11	4	11	40:41	39
8	Los Cabos United	26	11	3	12	37:40	37
9	Guerreros de Autlan	26	8	5	13	38:42	32
10	UA Zacatecas	26	8	4	14	32:49	29
11	Ensenada FC	26	8	2	16	30:55	28
12	Reboceros de La Piedad	26	7	1	18	39:66	23
13	Zapotlanejo	26	6	1	19	39:73	21
14	Colima FC	26	4	3	19	24:52	17

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Apodaca	26	21	2	3	47:19	66
2	FC Santiago	26	14	7	5	43:21	51
3	Zacatepec	26	12	8	6	29:15	45
4	Halcones de Zapopan	26	11	6	9	44:27	44
5	Calor De San Pedro	26	12	7	7	37:26	44
6	Gavilanes de Matamoros	26	12	5	9	31:22	44
7	Lobos ULMX	26	11	6	9	33:28	40
8	Correcaminos 2	26	9	7	10	27:25	36
9	Chilpancingo	26	9	8	9	33:41	35
10	Cordobes FC	26	8	6	12	29:30	30
11	Zitacuaro	26	6	10	10	22:31	28
12	CS Canamy	26	5	8	13	33:53	26
13	Ciervos	26	4	4	18	20:50	18
14	Atletico Hidalgo	26	4	4	18	22:62	16

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Racing de Veracruz	24	21	3	0	55:9	71
2	Deportiva Venados	24	15	4	5	61:25	52
3	Tapachula	24	13	0	11	51:35	44
4	Celaya	24	12	4	8	42:32	43
5	Inter Playa Del Carmen	24	13	4	7	35:28	42
6	Montaneses	24	12	2	10	35:28	38
7	Pioneros	24	10	3	11	35:35	35
8	Jaguares De Chiapas	24	9	4	11	33:32	34
9	Heroes de Zaci	24	10	2	12	33:46	34
10	Chapulineros	24	5	8	11	21:33	23
11	Canoneros FC	24	7	1	16	25:49	22
12	Neza FC	24	5	2	17	25:73	19
13	Dragones Toluca	24	4	3	17	21:47	17