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Leones Negros vs Monterrey Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
de la Rosa R.
39' Event
Martial A.
54' Event
Reyes C.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Leones Negros and Monterrey finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Monterrey.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Leones Negros
30%
Draws
33%
Monterrey
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Leones Negros

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Monterrey carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Leones Negros are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Monterrey have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 16%
Monterrey Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leones Negros Monterrey
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 8 12
Draws 7 5
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.39 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.82 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 4, 2026 Club Friendly
Leones Negros vs Monterrey
0:3
Oct 24, 2019 Copa Mexico
Leones Negros vs Monterrey
1:2
Aug 1, 2019 Copa Mexico
Monterrey vs Leones Negros
2:1
Jul 14, 2019 Club Friendly
Leones Negros vs Monterrey
1:2
Oct 26, 2017 Copa Mexico
Monterrey vs Leones Negros
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leones Negros Compare

Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Monterrey Compare

Top Goalscorer de la Rosa R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Martial A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leones Negros 48 / 100
Monterrey 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leones Negros Monterrey

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leones Negros Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monterrey has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Leones Negros found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

Leones Negros has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Leones Negros VS Monterrey
1.75 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Leones Negros

(Home)
26 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2
Leones Negros
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0
Leones Negros
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2
Atletico La Paz
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3
Leones Negros
30 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 1
Piratas
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Monterrey

(Away)
26 Sept
Atlante
4 : 2
Monterrey
20 Sept
Monterrey
1 : 0
Cruz Azul
13 Sept
Monterrey
0 : 0
Tigres UANL
07 Sept
Toluca
2 : 0
Monterrey
03 Sept
Club America
2 : 3
Monterrey
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