Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Leonesa vs AD Merida

Spain Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 Estadio Reino de León, León
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Almeida G.
27'
Carrillo H.
35'
Almeida G.

AI Match Summary

Leonesa in this Primera RFEF - Group 1 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leonesa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Leonesa
20%
Draws
22%
AD Merida
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Leonesa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • AD Merida have won more games recently than Leonesa.
  • Leonesa are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Primera RFEF - Group 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Leonesa here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Leonesa Clean Sheet 68%
AD Merida Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leonesa AD Merida
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 8
Draws 10 7
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 0.86 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Leonesa vs AD Merida
1:0
Apr 23, 2023 Primera RFEF - Group 1
AD Merida vs Leonesa
3:1
Jan 15, 2023 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Leonesa vs AD Merida
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leonesa Compare

Top Goalscorer Benito P. A. P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

AD Merida Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leonesa 95 / 100
AD Merida 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leonesa AD Merida

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leonesa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leonesa's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: AD Merida conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.33 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Leonesa remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Leonesa VS AD Merida
1 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Leonesa

(Home)
26 Sept
Leonesa
2 : 2
CD Coria
20 Sept
CD Extremadura
0 : 1
Leonesa
13 Sept
Cacereno
1 : 0
Leonesa
06 Sept
Leonesa
1 : 0
AD Merida
30 Aug
Barakaldo
0 : 0
Leonesa
Page 1 of 6

AD Merida

(Away)
27 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 5
UD Logrones
19 Sept
Ponferradina
1 : 0
AD Merida
12 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 4
Mirandes
06 Sept
Leonesa
1 : 0
AD Merida
29 Aug
AD Merida
1 : 0
Deportivo Fabril
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Logrones 5 4 1 0 13:6 13
2 Lugo 5 4 1 0 7:2 13
3 Ath Bilbao B 5 3 2 0 11:5 11
4 Cacereno 5 3 2 0 6:1 11
5 Mirandes 5 3 1 1 9:6 10
6 Pontevedra 5 2 2 1 8:6 8
7 Deportivo Fabril 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
8 Ponferradina 5 2 2 1 4:3 8
9 Leonesa 5 2 2 1 4:3 8
10 Real Union 5 2 1 2 12:10 7
11 Zamora 5 2 1 2 6:6 7
12 Racing Club Ferrol 5 2 1 2 5:5 7
13 Real Aviles 5 1 2 2 8:8 5
14 CD Coria 5 1 2 2 8:9 5
15 Barakaldo 5 1 2 2 5:8 5
16 CD Extremadura 5 1 0 4 2:5 3
17 AD Merida 5 1 0 4 7:11 3
18 Unionistas de Salamanca 5 1 0 4 7:12 3
19 UD Ourense 5 0 1 4 1:9 1
20 Arenas Getxo 5 0 1 4 3:13 1
Promotion - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)