Sport Picks

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Leopards vs Nairobi United

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Ssenyonjo S.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Leopards and Nairobi United finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leopards.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Leopards
33%
Draws
27%
Nairobi United
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Leopards

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Leopards come out ahead of Nairobi United on wins alone.
  • Leopards are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Leopards Clean Sheet 68%
Nairobi United Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leopards Nairobi United
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 18 11
Draws 4 11
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.25 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2026 Premier League
Leopards vs Nairobi United
1:0
Jan 7, 2026 Premier League
Nairobi United vs Leopards
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leopards Compare

Top Goalscorer Ssenyonjo S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Nairobi United Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leopards 50 / 100
Nairobi United 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leopards Nairobi United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leopards's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Nairobi United conceded in 70% of 33 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Leopards stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Leopards VS Nairobi United
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Leopards

(Home)
31 May
Leopards
1 : 2
Bidco United
24 May
APS Bomet
2 : 1
Leopards
16 May
Kakamega Homeboyz
1 : 2
Leopards
13 May
Ulinzi Stars
0 : 2
Leopards
09 May
Leopards
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
Page 1 of 6

Nairobi United

(Away)
31 May
Mahia
0 : 1
Nairobi United
24 May
Nairobi United
0 : 0
Police FC
16 May
Nairobi United
2 : 2
Posta Rangers
10 May
Kariobangi Sharks
2 : 0
Nairobi United
06 May
Nairobi United
1 : 0
Tusker
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Mahia34209550:2269
2Leopards34197844:2864
3Police FC341316531:2155
4Nairobi United341411944:3453
5Shabana3414101035:3452
6Kakamega Homeboyz341213947:3749
7KCB341391236:3748
8Muranga341381342:4147
9Tusker341361527:3245
10APS Bomet3411111237:3544
11Mara Sugar3410141030:3044
12Bandari34917826:2644
13Ulinzi Stars341181534:3741
14Mathare United341181531:3541
15Posta Rangers349131231:4040
16Kariobangi Sharks348141230:3338
17Bidco United345121719:4027
18Sofapaka343102119:5119
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)