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Lesotho vs Angola

Africa Africa

African Nations Championship
Lesotho Logo

Lesotho

0 - 2
FT
Angola Logo

Angola

Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Pessoa P.
20' Event
Kaporal
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Lesotho
35%
Draws
35%
Angola
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Angola have won more games recently than Lesotho.
  • Angola are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Angola arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Angola, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Angola have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Lesotho Clean Sheet 19%
Angola Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lesotho Angola
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 8 12
Draws 8 12
Losses 15 7
Goals Scored 0.68 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.55 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 8, 2025 COSAFA Cup
Angola vs Lesotho
4:0
Dec 28, 2024 African Nations Championship
Angola vs Lesotho
0:1
Dec 21, 2024 African Nations Championship
Lesotho vs Angola
0:2
Jul 3, 2024 COSAFA Cup
Lesotho vs Angola
1:3
Jul 12, 2023 COSAFA Cup
Angola vs Lesotho
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lesotho Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Angola Compare

Top Goalscorer Pessoa P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kaporal
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lesotho 24 / 100
Angola 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lesotho Angola

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Angola Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Angola let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Solid form: Lesotho remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Lesotho's goal record stands at 55% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Lesotho VS Angola
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lesotho

(Home)
07 Jun
Kenya
4 : 0
Lesotho
04 Jun
Lesotho
1 : 1
Kenya
29 Mar
Lesotho
2 : 1
Seychelles
26 Mar
Seychelles
0 : 0
Lesotho
18 Nov
Lesotho
0 : 1
Malawi
Page 1 of 7

Angola

(Away)
09 Jun
Angola
3 : 0
Central Africa
05 Jun
Angola
1 : 1
Mauritania
29 Dec
Angola
0 : 0
Egypt
26 Dec
Angola
1 : 1
Zimbabwe
22 Dec
South Africa
2 : 1
Angola
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Sierra Leone 2
Liberia 3
TBD -
Senegal -
Mauritania -
TBD -
TBD -
Mali -
Guinea -
TBD -
TBD -
Guinea Bissau -
Togo 3
Benin 1
TBD -
Niger -
Ivory Coast -
TBD -
TBD -
Burkina Faso -
Ghana -
TBD -
TBD -
Nigeria -
Equatorial Guinea -
TBD -
TBD -
Congo -
Central Africa -
TBD -
TBD -
Cameroon -
Chad -
TBD -
TBD -
D.R. Congo -
Burundi 6
Somalia 0
TBD -
Uganda -
Ethiopia 6
Eritrea 0
Sudan 2
Tanzania 1
South Sudan 3
Kenya 1
Djibouti 1
Rwanda 3
Zimbabwe 0
Eswatini 4
TBD -
Madagascar -
Lesotho 2
Namibia 1
TBD -
Angola -
Mozambique -
TBD -
TBD -
Zambia -
Final
Liberia 1
Senegal 4
Mauritania 1
Mali 0
Guinea 6
Guinea Bissau 2
Togo 1
Niger 1
Ivory Coast 2
Burkina Faso 3
Ghana 1
Nigeria 3
Equatorial Guinea 1
Congo 2
Central Africa 2
Cameroon 2
Chad 2
D.R. Congo 4
Burundi 0
Uganda 2
Ethiopia 1
Sudan 4
South Sudan 4
Rwanda 4
Eswatini 1
Madagascar 2
Lesotho 1
Angola 2
Mozambique 0
Zambia 6