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Lesotho vs Malawi

World World

Friendly International 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Lesotho
30%
Draws
31%
Malawi
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lesotho

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Malawi at 0.83 per game, Lesotho at 0.68.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
Lesotho Clean Sheet 19%
Malawi Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lesotho Malawi
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 8 8
Draws 8 5
Losses 15 17
Goals Scored 0.68 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2025 Friendly International
Lesotho vs Malawi
0:1
Nov 15, 2025 Friendly International
Lesotho vs Malawi
0:0
Jun 5, 2025 COSAFA Cup
Malawi vs Lesotho
0:1
Jul 14, 2023 COSAFA Cup
Malawi vs Lesotho
1:2
Feb 25, 2023 Friendly International
Malawi vs Lesotho
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lesotho 32 / 100
Malawi 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lesotho Malawi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Malawi has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Lesotho went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Malawi lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Lesotho scored in 55% of their last 31 games.

Scoring Trends

Lesotho VS Malawi
0.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lesotho

(Home)
07 Jun
Kenya
4 : 0
Lesotho
04 Jun
Lesotho
1 : 1
Kenya
29 Mar
Lesotho
2 : 1
Seychelles
26 Mar
Seychelles
0 : 0
Lesotho
18 Nov
Lesotho
0 : 1
Malawi
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Malawi

(Away)
09 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 1
Malawi
06 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 0
Malawi
31 Mar
Botswana
1 : 0
Malawi
28 Mar
Zambia U23
1 : 0
Malawi
18 Nov
Lesotho
0 : 1
Malawi
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