Sport Picks
Lexington vs Orange County SC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL Championship Toyota Stadium, Georgetown, KY 
Match Events
9'
9'
Goodrum P.
Assist: Nick Firmino
15'
15'
Epps M.
Assist: Nick Firmino
24'
24'
Goodrum P.
Assist: Ferri B.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Lexington and Orange County SC finished 6-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lexington.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
64%
15%
21%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lexington
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Lexington come out ahead of Orange County SC on wins alone.
- 64% — that's where the model lands on Lexington taking it.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Lexington Clean Sheet 20%
Orange County SC Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lexington | Orange County SC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 15 | 9 |
| Draws | 3 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.87 | 1.28 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.37 | 1.76 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.31 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 19, 2026 USL Championship
Lexington vs Orange County SC
6:0
Apr 19, 2026 USL Championship
Orange County SC vs Lexington
0:0
Sep 12, 2025 USL Championship
Lexington vs Orange County SC
1:1
Mar 16, 2025 USL Championship
Orange County SC vs Lexington
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lexington Compare
Top Goalscorer Goodrum P.
3 Goals Assists Leader Epps M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16
Orange County SC Compare
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lexington 85 / 100
Orange County SC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lexington Orange County SC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Lexington Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lexington's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Defensive concern: Orange County SC conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Lexington has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Lexington VS Orange County SC
2 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 2.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Lexington
(Home) 03 Oct
Lexington
3 : 1 El Paso Locomotive
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0 Orange County SC
13 Sept
Oakland Roots
1 : 4 Lexington
05 Sept
Sporting Jax
3 : 2 Lexington
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Lexington
3 : 1 El Paso Locomotive
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0 Orange County SC
29 Aug
Lexington
0 : 1 Colorado Springs
22 Aug
Lexington
2 : 0 Las Vegas Lights
08 Aug
Lexington
1 : 0 Phoenix Rising
Page 1 of 3
Orange County SC
(Away) 04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2 Monterey Bay
27 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0 Orange County SC
13 Sept
Orange County SC
0 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
06 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0 Orange County SC
30 Aug
Oakland Roots
1 : 1 Orange County SC
26 Jul
Monterey Bay
1 : 2 Orange County SC
08 Jul
Hartford Athletic
2 : 2 Orange County SC
04 Jul
Rhode Island
1 : 1 Orange County SC
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46:25 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33:20 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52:31 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29:26 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39:29 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28:27 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43:42 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38:45 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33:33 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32:44 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46:35 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:32 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37:25 | 44 |
| 4 | Lexington | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 49:33 | 43 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 32:25 | 42 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40:37 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36:42 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29:29 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35:38 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36:40 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29:47 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
