Sport Picks
Lexington vs Sacramento Republic Prediction & H2H Stats
USA
USL Championship Toyota Stadium, Georgetown, KY 
Match Events
34'
34'
Benitez M.
63'
63'
Sub
Nick Firmino In: Lewis J.
Out: Nick Firmino
63'
63'
Sub
Hafferty J. In: Brown J.
Out: Hafferty J.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this USL Championship matchup, with the score ending 0-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
20%
44%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sacramento Republic
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
36%
/ Low Confidence
- Sacramento Republic have won more games recently than Lexington.
- Win probability leans Lexington's way, sitting at 80%.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Lexington Clean Sheet 68%
Sacramento Republic Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lexington | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 32 |
| Wins | 13 | 16 |
| Draws | 3 | 9 |
| Losses | 12 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.79 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.43 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 16, 2026 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs Lexington
1:0
Mar 14, 2026 USL Championship
Lexington vs Sacramento Republic
0:0
Oct 17, 2025 USL Championship
Lexington vs Sacramento Republic
2:2
Jul 20, 2025 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs Lexington
0:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lexington 86 / 100
Sacramento Republic 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lexington Sacramento Republic
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Lexington Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lexington scored in 75% of their last 28 games.
Sacramento Republic let in goals in 63% of their last 32 matches.
Recent resilience: Lexington stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Games between these two average 1.25 goals.
Scoring Trends
Lexington VS Sacramento Republic
2 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Lexington
(Home) 27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0 Orange County SC
13 Sept
Oakland Roots
1 : 4 Lexington
05 Sept
Sporting Jax
3 : 2 Lexington
29 Aug
Lexington
0 : 1 Colorado Springs
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0 Orange County SC
29 Aug
Lexington
0 : 1 Colorado Springs
22 Aug
Lexington
2 : 0 Las Vegas Lights
08 Aug
Lexington
1 : 0 Phoenix Rising
01 Aug
Lexington
3 : 2 Monterey Bay
Page 1 of 3
Sacramento Republic
(Away) 01 Oct
Sacramento Republic
3 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
27 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 3 Sacramento Republic
20 Sept
Sacramento Republic
0 : 0 San Antonio FC
13 Sept
Sacramento Republic
1 : 0 Detroit City
06 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
Page 1 of 7
27 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 3 Sacramento Republic
06 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
30 Aug
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
08 Aug
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0 : 0 Sacramento Republic
06 Aug
FC Tulsa
1 : 0 Sacramento Republic
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 45:23 | 52 |
| 2 | Charleston | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52:31 | 46 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 32:20 | 44 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29:26 | 39 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28:27 | 38 |
| 6 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43:42 | 37 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 36:28 | 35 |
| 8 | Indy Eleven | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 32:32 | 33 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36:44 | 33 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 36:42 | 23 |
| 11 | Loudoun United | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 31:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 26:52 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 45:32 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 39:31 | 43 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 36:24 | 43 |
| 4 | FC Tulsa | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 31:24 | 41 |
| 5 | Lexington | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 46:32 | 40 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 40:37 | 39 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 35:40 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 29:28 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 34:38 | 33 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33:35 | 33 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 35:38 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 27:46 | 18 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
