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Lexington W vs Sporting Jax W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

USL Super League Women Toyota Stadium, Georgetown, KY
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
VS
11:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lexington W host Sporting Jax W in the USL Super League Women. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Recent numbers: Lexington W at 1.67 goals for, 0.87 against; Sporting Jax W at 1.87 for, 1 against. Head-to-head, Lexington W have won 3 to Sporting Jax W's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Sep 20, 2026, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 1.56 vs 0.94, favoring Lexington W. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Lexington W
30%
Draws
23%
Sporting Jax W
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lexington W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Sporting Jax W's 1.87 goals per match outpaces what Lexington W have produced (1.67).
  • Lexington W are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular USL Super League Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Lexington W have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Lexington W Clean Sheet 20%
Sporting Jax W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lexington W Sporting Jax W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 17
Draws 7 5
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.67 1.87
Goals Conceded 0.87 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 USL Super League Women
Sporting Jax W vs Lexington W
0:1
Apr 25, 2026 USL Super League Women
Sporting Jax W vs Lexington W
1:2
Feb 21, 2026 USL Super League Women
Lexington W vs Sporting Jax W
0:3
Oct 31, 2025 USL Super League Women
Lexington W vs Sporting Jax W
4:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lexington W 49 / 100
Sporting Jax W 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lexington W Sporting Jax W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lexington W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lexington W found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Sporting Jax W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Lexington W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lexington W VS Sporting Jax W
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lexington W

(Home)
17 Oct
Lexington W
2 : 1
Tampa Bay Sun W
11 Oct
Fort Lauderdale United W
2 : 1
Lexington W
04 Oct
Tampa Bay Sun W
1 : 1
Lexington W
25 Sept
Lexington W
3 : 0
Dallas Trinity W
20 Sept
Sporting Jax W
0 : 1
Lexington W
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Sporting Jax W

(Away)
16 Oct
Sporting Jax W
4 : 1
Fort Lauderdale United W
26 Sept
Carolina Ascent W
3 : 3
Sporting Jax W
20 Sept
Sporting Jax W
0 : 1
Lexington W
13 Sept
Brooklyn W
3 : 2
Sporting Jax W
04 Sept
DC Power W
1 : 1
Sporting Jax W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carolina Ascent W 9 7 1 1 17:6 22
2 Sporting Jax W 8 4 2 2 16:11 14
3 Lexington W 8 4 1 3 12:7 13
4 Dallas Trinity W 8 3 2 3 10:12 11
5 DC Power W 8 3 2 3 11:9 11
6 Tampa Bay Sun W 8 2 3 3 10:13 9
7 Brooklyn W 8 2 1 5 6:15 7
8 Fort Lauderdale United W 9 2 0 7 7:16 6
Promotion - USL Super League Women (Play Offs)