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Liberia vs Mali

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex, Monrovia
Liberia Logo

Liberia

Tue, Sep 29, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Mali Logo

Mali

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 2-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Chances could be at a premium in this fixture. Recent numbers: Liberia at 1 goals for, 1.52 against; Mali at 1.33 for, 0.57 against. Head-to-head, Liberia have won 1 to Mali's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on Oct 8, 2011, ending 2:2. Model xG sits at 0.69 vs 0.69, favoring Mali. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Liberia
30%
Draws
39%
Mali
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mali

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mali lately — more wins on the board than Liberia.
  • 31% — that's where the model lands on Liberia taking it.
  • Mali arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Liberia, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Liberia Clean Sheet 20%
Mali Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Liberia Mali
Matches Played 23 30
Wins 6 13
Draws 7 10
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.52 0.57
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 8, 2011 Africa Cup of Nations
Liberia vs Mali
2:2
Oct 9, 2010 Africa Cup of Nations
Mali vs Liberia
2:1
Jun 5, 2005 World Championship
Mali vs Liberia
4:1
Jun 6, 2004 World Championship
Liberia vs Mali
1:0
Jan 19, 2002 Africa Cup of Nations
Mali vs Liberia
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Liberia 49 / 100
Mali 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Liberia Mali

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Liberia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Liberia found the back of the net in 65% of recent matches (23 games).

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Defensive concern: Mali conceded in 43% of 30 recent games.

Liberia went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Liberia VS Mali
0.63 Goals Scored 0.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
38% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Liberia

(Home)
09 Jun
Liberia
3 : 1
Sierra Leone
06 Jun
Sierra Leone
1 : 0
Liberia
31 Mar
Liberia
2 : 2
Libya
27 Mar
Benin
1 : 0
Liberia
15 Nov
Guinea
2 : 0
Liberia
Page 1 of 5

Mali

(Away)
04 Jun
Iran
2 : 0
Mali
31 Mar
Russia
0 : 0
Mali
09 Jan
Mali
0 : 1
Senegal
03 Jan
Mali
2 : 1
Tunisia
29 Dec
Comoros
0 : 0
Mali
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Lesotho 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Gabon 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Niger 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Malawi 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Egypt 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Angola 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 South Sudan 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivory Coast 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
2 Gambia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Somalia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Ghana 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kenya 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 South Africa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Guinea 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Eritrea 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
2 Zimbabwe 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
3 Sierra Leone 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
4 Equatorial Guinea 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mauritania 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
2 Burkina Faso 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Benin 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Central Africa 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
2 Namibia 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
3 Congo 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
4 Comoros 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Botswana 1 0 1 0 2:2 1
2 Uganda 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
3 Libya 1 0 1 0 2:2 1
4 Tunisia 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Burundi 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Zambia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Togo 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ethiopia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Senegal 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Mozambique 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Sudan 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cape Verde 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Liberia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Rwanda 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Mali 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tanzania 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Nigeria 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Madagascar 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Guinea Bissau 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)