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Liberia vs Sierra Leone

Africa Africa

African Nations Championship
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Liberia play Sierra Leone in the African Nations Championship. It looks like a close match. Recently, Liberia averaged 1.11 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. Sierra Leone averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. In past meetings, Liberia won 2, Sierra Leone won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 9, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.75 for Liberia and 1.06 for Sierra Leone. This points to a Liberia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Liberia
26%
Draws
35%
Sierra Leone
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Liberia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Liberia picked up more points recently compared to Sierra Leone.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.75 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Liberia Clean Sheet 22%
Sierra Leone Clean Sheet 19%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Liberia Sierra Leone
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 8 8
Draws 8 8
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.11 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 9, 2026 Friendly International
Liberia vs Sierra Leone
3:1
Jun 6, 2026 Friendly International
Sierra Leone vs Liberia
1:0
Nov 1, 2024 African Nations Championship
Liberia vs Sierra Leone
1:1
Oct 27, 2024 African Nations Championship
Sierra Leone vs Liberia
1:2
Mar 27, 2022 Friendly International
Liberia vs Sierra Leone
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Liberia Compare

Top Goalscorer Kumeh L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Sierra Leone Compare

Top Goalscorer Dumbuya M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Liberia 40 / 100
Sierra Leone 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Liberia Sierra Leone

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Liberia or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Liberia attacking → ← attacking Sierra Leone

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Liberia scored in 67% of their last 27 games.

Sierra Leone let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Liberia went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Sierra Leone lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 32
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75