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Libertad vs Guayaquil City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja
Libertad Logo

Libertad

Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
04:30 PM
Guayaquil City Logo

Guayaquil City

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Libertad host Guayaquil City in the Liga Pro. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Libertad at 1.17 goals for, 1.14 against; Guayaquil City at 1.21 for, 1.25 against. Past meetings favor Libertad slightly — 1-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 15, 2026, ending 2:2. xG projections (1.56 - 1.38) back Libertad to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Libertad
20%
Draws
33%
Guayaquil City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Libertad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Libertad carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Libertad are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Libertad Clean Sheet 17%
Guayaquil City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Libertad Guayaquil City
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 10
Draws 7 8
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.17 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Liga Pro
Guayaquil City vs Libertad
2:2
Apr 21, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Guayaquil City
0:1
Oct 10, 2023 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Guayaquil City
1:0
May 6, 2023 Liga Pro
Guayaquil City vs Libertad
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Libertad 57 / 100
Guayaquil City 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Libertad Guayaquil City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Libertad Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Libertad found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Guayaquil City has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Libertad stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Libertad VS Guayaquil City
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Libertad

(Home)
09 Oct
Libertad
3 : 0
Leones del Norte
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
07 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Libertad
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
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Guayaquil City

(Away)
19 Sept
Guayaquil City
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
12 Sept
Guayaquil City
3 : 1
Mushuc Runa
08 Sept
Orense
4 : 3
Guayaquil City
02 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
1 : 0
Guayaquil City
29 Aug
Guayaquil City
2 : 1
LDU Quito
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
7 Libertad 32 13 8 11 38:35 47
8 Guayaquil City 31 10 10 11 34:37 40
9 Leones del Norte 32 10 10 12 32:36 40
10 Emelec 31 10 9 12 26:36 39
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