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Libertad vs Independiente del Valle - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja
Libertad Logo

Libertad

2 - 3
FT
Independiente del Valle Logo

Independiente del Valle

Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Perello M.
Assist: Vasquez Y.
29'
Sub
Pineda Arana X. E. In: Estacio J.
Out: Pineda Arana X. E.
29'
Sub
Coronel D. In: Cortez Casierra G. J.
Out: Coronel D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Independiente del Valle in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Independiente del Valle.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Libertad
20%
Draws
47%
Independiente del Valle
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Independiente del Valle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Independiente del Valle lately — more wins on the board than Libertad.
  • Win probability leans Libertad's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Libertad Clean Sheet 16%
Independiente del Valle Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Libertad Independiente del Valle
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 23
Draws 7 2
Losses 12 3
Goals Scored 1.1 2.46
Goals Conceded 1.21 0.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Independiente del Valle
2:3
May 23, 2026 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Libertad
2:3
Dec 6, 2025 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Libertad
1:1
Nov 4, 2025 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Independiente del Valle
1:3
Jun 14, 2025 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Libertad
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Libertad Compare

Top Goalscorer Cortez Casierra G. J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Branda V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Independiente del Valle Compare

Top Goalscorer Perello M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vasquez Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Libertad 36 / 100
Independiente del Valle 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Libertad Independiente del Valle

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Libertad scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Recent resilience: Libertad stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Independiente del Valle conceded in 54% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Libertad VS Independiente del Valle
1.13 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Libertad

(Home)
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
07 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Libertad
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
30 Aug
Aucas
1 : 0
Libertad
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Independiente del Valle

(Away)
25 Sept
Gualaceo
0 : 2
Independiente del Valle
18 Sept
Flamengo RJ
1 : 1
Independiente del Valle
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
11 Sept
Independiente del Valle
0 : 2
Flamengo RJ
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1
Macara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
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