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Libertad vs Leones del Norte - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja
Libertad Logo

Libertad

3 - 0
FT
Leones del Norte Logo

Leones del Norte

Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Patta E.
45'
Velez C.
65'
Sub
Solano C. In: Pazmino D.
Out: Solano C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Libertad and Leones del Norte finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Libertad.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Libertad
30%
Draws
23%
Leones del Norte
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Libertad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Leones del Norte have managed 1.03 goals a game lately — Libertad are scoring more at 1.17.
  • Model gives Libertad a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Libertad Clean Sheet 68%
Leones del Norte Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Libertad Leones del Norte
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 11
Draws 7 7
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.17 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Leones del Norte
3:0
Jul 4, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Leones del Norte
1:3
Feb 28, 2026 Liga Pro
Leones del Norte vs Libertad
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Libertad Compare

Top Goalscorer Patta E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Branda V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Leones del Norte Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Libertad 95 / 100
Leones del Norte 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Libertad Leones del Norte

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Libertad Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Libertad scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Leones del Norte's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Libertad has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Libertad VS Leones del Norte
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Libertad

(Home)
09 Oct
Libertad
3 : 0
Leones del Norte
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
07 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Libertad
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
Page 1 of 6

Leones del Norte

(Away)
09 Oct
Libertad
3 : 0
Leones del Norte
19 Sept
Guayaquil City
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
13 Sept
Leones del Norte
0 : 1
Tecnico U.
08 Sept
Mushuc Runa
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
03 Sept
Leones del Norte
1 : 0
Orense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
7 Libertad 32 13 8 11 38:35 47
8 Guayaquil City 31 10 10 11 34:37 40
9 Leones del Norte 32 10 10 12 32:36 40
10 Emelec 31 10 9 12 26:36 39
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