Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Libertad vs Macara

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Chere A.
Assist: Patta E.
30'
Etchebarne S.
31'
Bravo J.

AI Match Summary

Libertad in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Libertad.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Libertad
15%
Draws
54%
Macara
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Macara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Macara have won more games recently than Libertad.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Libertad Clean Sheet 18%
Macara Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Libertad Macara
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 15
Draws 7 6
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.1 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 25, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Macara
1:0
Apr 26, 2026 Liga Pro
Macara vs Libertad
3:0
Sep 21, 2025 Liga Pro
Macara vs Libertad
1:1
May 25, 2025 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Macara
0:1
Aug 17, 2024 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Macara
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Libertad Compare

Top Goalscorer Chere A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Macara Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Libertad 32 / 100
Macara 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Libertad Macara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Libertad scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Macara's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Libertad remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Libertad VS Macara
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Libertad

(Home)
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
07 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Libertad
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
30 Aug
Aucas
1 : 0
Libertad
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Macara

(Away)
19 Sept
Aucas
1 : 2
Macara
13 Sept
Macara
1 : 0
Emelec
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1
Macara
02 Sept
Macara
4 : 3
Manta
30 Aug
Orense
1 : 2
Macara
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)