Sport Picks
Libertad vs Mushuc Runa
Ecuador
Liga Pro Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja 
Match Events
4'
4'
Carrillo R.
Assist: Lemos L.
25'
25'
Chere A.
Assist: Guisamano J.
40'
40'
Orejuela C.
Assist: Carrillo R.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
35%
30%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Libertad lately — more wins on the board than Mushuc Runa.
- Libertad are the model's pick here, at 42%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Libertad Clean Sheet 20%
Mushuc Runa Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Libertad | Mushuc Runa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 9 |
| Draws | 7 | 10 |
| Losses | 12 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.03 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.21 | 1.21 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 27, 2026 Liga Pro
Mushuc Runa vs Libertad
0:2
Apr 7, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Mushuc Runa
2:2
Aug 9, 2025 Liga Pro
Mushuc Runa vs Libertad
1:2
Apr 19, 2025 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Mushuc Runa
2:1
Sep 26, 2024 Copa Ecuador
Mushuc Runa vs Libertad
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Libertad Compare
Top Goalscorer Chere A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Zambrano I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Mushuc Runa Compare
Top Goalscorer Carrillo R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Orejuela C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Libertad 42 / 100
Mushuc Runa 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Libertad Mushuc Runa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Libertad scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.
Mushuc Runa has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Solid form: Libertad remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Libertad VS Mushuc Runa
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Libertad
(Home) 07 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1 Libertad
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1 Emelec
30 Aug
Aucas
1 : 0 Libertad
25 Aug
Libertad
1 : 0 Macara
15 Aug
Guayaquil City
2 : 2 Libertad
Page 1 of 6
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1 Emelec
25 Aug
Libertad
1 : 0 Macara
10 Aug
Libertad
2 : 1 U. Catolica
01 Aug
Libertad
3 : 0 Orense
21 Jul
Libertad
1 : 0 Delfin
Page 1 of 3
Mushuc Runa
(Away) 08 Sept
Mushuc Runa
1 : 1 Leones del Norte
02 Sept
LDU Quito
0 : 0 Mushuc Runa
28 Aug
Mushuc Runa
1 : 0 Delfin
22 Aug
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 0 Mushuc Runa
16 Aug
Mushuc Runa
0 : 0 Barcelona SC
Page 1 of 6
02 Sept
LDU Quito
0 : 0 Mushuc Runa
22 Aug
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 0 Mushuc Runa
10 Aug
Tecnico U.
0 : 3 Mushuc Runa
01 Aug
Manta
1 : 2 Mushuc Runa
24 Jul
Emelec
1 : 1 Mushuc Runa
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 29 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 70:31 | 71 |
| 2 | Aucas | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 33:28 | 49 |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 49:26 | 48 |
| 4 | Macara | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 40:33 | 48 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 30:23 | 45 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 31:24 | 43 |
| 7 | Libertad | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 31:31 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 31:31 | 39 |
| 9 | Emelec | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 25:33 | 39 |
| 10 | Mushuc Runa | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 34:35 | 38 |
| 11 | Guayaquil City | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:35 | 36 |
| 12 | Dep. Cuenca | 29 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 24:36 | 35 |
| 13 | Orense | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 35:45 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico U. | 29 | 9 | 2 | 18 | 27:42 | 29 |
| 15 | Delfin | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 18:30 | 27 |
| 16 | Manta | 29 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 17:42 | 20 |
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)
