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Libya vs Mauritania

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Friendly International 2025 Martyrs of February Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Libya play Mauritania in the Friendly International 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Libya averaged 1.23 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. Mauritania averaged 0.62 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Libya won 2, Mauritania won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Nov 15, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Libya and 0.56 for Mauritania. This points to a Libya double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Libya
35%
Draws
24%
Mauritania
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Libya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Libya picked up more points recently compared to Mauritania.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 0.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 54%
Over 2.5 Goals 28%
Over 3.5 Goals 17%
Over 4.5 Goals 8%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Libya Clean Sheet 30%
Mauritania Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 49%
Second Half Goal 51%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Libya Mauritania
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 13 6
Draws 11 10
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 1.23 0.62
Goals Conceded 0.93 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2025 Friendly International
Libya vs Mauritania
1:0
Mar 29, 2022 Friendly International
Mauritania vs Libya
2:0
Oct 15, 2019 Friendly International
Mauritania vs Libya
0:0
May 13, 2013 Friendly International
Libya vs Mauritania
2:0
Mar 21, 2007 Friendly International
Libya vs Mauritania
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Libya Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Shalui M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Mauritania Compare

Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Libya 43 / 100
Mauritania 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Libya Mauritania

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Libya or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +27.4%
4.55
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Libya attacking → ← attacking Mauritania

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Libya scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Mauritania let in goals in 58% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Libya went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Mauritania lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 28
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.38
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00