Sport Picks
Lille vs Aston Villa
Europe
Europa League 2025/2026 Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq 
Match Events
46'
46'
Sub
Andre B. In: Bouaddi A.
Out: Andre B.
52'
52'
Sub
Perrin G. In: Fernandez-Pardo M.
Out: Perrin G.
61'
61'
Watkins O.
Assist: Buendia E.
AI Match Summary
Aston Villa in this Europa League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lille
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Aston Villa lately — more wins on the board than Lille.
- Win probability leans Lille's way, sitting at 60%.
- Aston Villa arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Aston Villa, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Lille Clean Sheet 68%
Aston Villa Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lille | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 14 |
| Draws | 5 | 4 |
| Losses | 11 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.71 | 2.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.71 | 2.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.14 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 19, 2026 Europa League
Aston Villa vs Lille
2:0
Mar 12, 2026 Europa League
Lille vs Aston Villa
0:1
Apr 18, 2024 Conference League
Lille vs Aston Villa
2:2
Apr 11, 2024 Conference League
Aston Villa vs Lille
2:1
Aug 7, 2002 Intertoto Cup
Aston Villa vs Lille
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lille Compare
Avg xG / game 1.32
Avg xA / game 0.85
Aston Villa Compare
Top Goalscorer Watkins O.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lille 68 / 100
Aston Villa 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lille Aston Villa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick LIL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lille found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).
Aston Villa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: Lille stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Lille VS Aston Villa
1.71 Goals Scored 2.75
1.14 Goals Conceded 1.13
71% Over 1.5 100%
43% Over 2.5 100%
14% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Lille
(Home) 01 Aug
Leuven
3 : 6 Lille
25 Jul
Royale Union SG
2 : 1 Lille
18 Jul
Lille
3 : 0 RAAL La Louviere
17 May
Lille
0 : 2 Auxerre
10 May
Monaco
0 : 1 Lille
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Lille
3 : 0 RAAL La Louviere
17 May
Lille
0 : 2 Auxerre
03 May
Lille
1 : 1 Le Havre
18 Apr
Lille
0 : 0 Nice
04 Apr
Lille
3 : 0 Lens
Page 1 of 3
Aston Villa
(Away) 07 Aug
Bayern Munich
2 : 1 Aston Villa
04 Aug
Pathum United
1 : 3 Aston Villa
01 Aug
Liga 1 All-Stars
1 : 3 Aston Villa
28 Jul
Aston Villa
2 : 4 Real Sociedad
25 Jul
FC Porto
2 : 1 Aston Villa
Page 1 of 6
07 Aug
Bayern Munich
2 : 1 Aston Villa
04 Aug
Pathum United
1 : 3 Aston Villa
01 Aug
Liga 1 All-Stars
1 : 3 Aston Villa
25 Jul
FC Porto
2 : 1 Aston Villa
21 Jul
Walsall
0 : 5 Aston Villa
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Ludogorets 2
Ferencvaros 3
Braga -
TBD -
Panathinaikos 4
Plzen 3
Betis -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb 4
Genk 6
Freiburg -
TBD -
PAOK 1
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon -
TBD -
Celtic 2
VfB Stuttgart 4
FC Porto -
TBD -
Fenerbahce 2
Nottingham 4
Midtjylland -
TBD -
Brann 0
Bologna 2
AS Roma -
TBD -
Lille 2
Crvena zvezda 1
Aston Villa -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros 2
Braga 4
Panathinaikos 1
Betis 4
Genk 2
Freiburg 5
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon 1
VfB Stuttgart 1
FC Porto 4
Nottingham 3
Midtjylland 2
Bologna 5
AS Roma 4
Lille 0
Aston Villa 3
Quarter-finals
Braga 5
Betis 3
Freiburg 6
Celta Vigo 1
FC Porto 1
Nottingham 2
Bologna 1
Aston Villa 7
Semi-finals
Braga 3
Freiburg 4
Nottingham 1
Aston Villa 4
Final
Freiburg 0
Aston Villa 3
