Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lille vs Lorient

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
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Match Events

22'
Perrin G.
32'
Ozer B.
32'
Mandi A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Lille
15%
Draws
49%
Lorient
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lorient

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Lorient have won more games recently than Lille.
  • Model gives Lorient a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Lille Clean Sheet 14%
Lorient Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lille Lorient
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 15
Draws 5 7
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.63 2.25
Goals Conceded 1 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Ligue 1
Lille vs Lorient
1:1
Aug 30, 2025 Ligue 1
Lorient vs Lille
1:7
Jan 14, 2024 Ligue 1
Lille vs Lorient
3:0
Aug 27, 2023 Ligue 1
Lorient vs Lille
4:1
Apr 2, 2023 Ligue 1
Lille vs Lorient
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lille Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandez-Pardo M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Lorient Compare

Top Goalscorer Avom A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lille 27 / 100
Lorient 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lille Lorient

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LOR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.40 goals as a typical output.

Lille's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Lorient's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

Solid form: Lille remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lille VS Lorient
1.63 Goals Scored 2.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Lille

(Home)
01 Aug
Leuven
3 : 6
Lille
25 Jul
Royale Union SG
2 : 1
Lille
18 Jul
Lille
3 : 0
RAAL La Louviere
17 May
Lille
0 : 2
Auxerre
10 May
Monaco
0 : 1
Lille
Page 1 of 6

Lorient

(Away)
04 Aug
Lorient
5 : 1
UNFP
25 Jul
Guingamp
0 : 2
Lorient
18 Jul
Lorient
1 : 0
Nantes
11 Jul
Concarneau
1 : 2
Lorient
17 May
Lorient
0 : 2
Le Havre
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 34 24 4 6 74:29 76
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 66:35 70
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 52:37 61
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 53:40 60
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 63:45 59
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 59:50 59
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 60:54 54
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 58:47 53
9 Toulouse 34 12 9 13 47:46 45
10 Lorient 34 11 12 11 48:51 45
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 47:50 44
12 Brest 34 10 9 15 43:55 39
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 29:48 36
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 32:44 35
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 34:44 34
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 37:60 32
17 Nantes 34 5 9 20 29:52 24
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 32:76 17
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)