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Stadium Background

Lille vs Troyes

France France

Ligue 1 Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Haraldsson H.
18' Event
Santos T.
Assist: Bakwa D.
22'
Diaz Jr. M.

AI Match Summary

Lille in this Ligue 1 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lille.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Lille
30%
Draws
23%
Troyes
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lille

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Lille haven't matched Troyes's recent run of results.
  • Lille are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Lille Clean Sheet 68%
Troyes Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lille Troyes
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 15
Draws 8 5
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.45 1.82
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Ligue 1
Lille vs Troyes
2:0
Jun 3, 2023 Ligue 1
Troyes vs Lille
1:1
Jan 15, 2023 Ligue 1
Lille vs Troyes
5:1
Jan 8, 2023 Coupe de France
Lille vs Troyes
2:0
May 1, 2022 Ligue 1
Troyes vs Lille
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lille Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mbappe E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Troyes Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lille 95 / 100
Troyes 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lille Troyes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lille Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 8:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lille scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Troyes has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Lille stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lille VS Troyes
2.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lille

(Home)
13 Sept
Lille
2 : 0
Troyes
08 Sept
Lille
2 : 3
Betis
03 Sept
Toulouse
0 : 1
Lille
28 Aug
Lille
2 : 2
PSG
23 Aug
Angers
0 : 2
Lille
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Troyes

(Away)
13 Sept
Lille
2 : 0
Troyes
06 Sept
Troyes
2 : 6
Strasbourg
29 Aug
Lorient
1 : 2
Troyes
22 Aug
Troyes
0 : 0
Paris FC
14 Aug
Troyes
1 : 1
Panetolikos
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lille 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
2 Monaco 4 3 1 0 6:2 10
3 Rennes 4 3 1 0 8:5 10
4 Paris FC 4 2 2 0 6:2 8
5 Lyon 4 2 2 0 6:2 8
6 Strasbourg 4 2 1 1 9:8 7
7 PSG 4 1 2 1 6:6 5
8 Lorient 4 1 2 1 4:4 5
9 Brest 4 1 2 1 6:6 5
10 Lens 4 1 1 2 8:7 4
11 Angers 4 1 1 2 4:5 4
12 Troyes 4 1 1 2 4:9 4
13 Marseille 4 1 0 3 6:6 3
14 Le Mans 4 0 3 1 7:8 3
15 Auxerre 4 1 0 3 5:11 3
16 Le Havre 4 0 2 2 2:4 2
17 Toulouse 4 0 2 2 4:7 2
18 Nice 4 0 2 2 1:5 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)