Sport Picks
Lillestrom vs Sogndal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Norway
NM Cup Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrøm 
AI Match Summary
The first leg ended 1-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Lillestrom have averaged 1.48 scored and 1.44 conceded recently, against Sogndal's 1.93 scored and 2.07 conceded. Past meetings favor Lillestrom slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 13, 2025, ending 1:5. xG projections (1.69 - 1.13) back Lillestrom to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lillestrom
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Lillestrom carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Lillestrom a 47% chance of winning this.
- Lillestrom have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Sogndal, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Lillestrom Clean Sheet 20%
Sogndal Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lillestrom | Sogndal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 27 |
| Wins | 11 | 8 |
| Draws | 4 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.48 | 1.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.44 | 2.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 13, 2025 OBOS-ligaen
Sogndal vs Lillestrom
1:5
Jun 28, 2025 OBOS-ligaen
Lillestrom vs Sogndal
0:0
Mar 12, 2023 NM Cup
Sogndal vs Lillestrom
1:2
Nov 4, 2020 OBOS-ligaen
Sogndal vs Lillestrom
0:1
Aug 4, 2020 OBOS-ligaen
Lillestrom vs Sogndal
0:2
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lillestrom 58 / 100
Sogndal 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lillestrom Sogndal
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Lillestrom Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Sogndal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 27 matches.
Attacking prowess: Lillestrom scored in 70% of their last 27 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Lillestrom remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Lillestrom VS Sogndal
1.88 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Lillestrom
(Home) 18 Oct
Sandefjord
0 : 2 Lillestrom
15 Oct
Sparta Prague
1 : 1 Lillestrom
11 Oct
Lillestrom
2 : 2 Molde
01 Oct
Baerum
1 : 5 Lillestrom
20 Sept
Viking
3 : 0 Lillestrom
Page 1 of 6
11 Oct
Lillestrom
2 : 2 Molde
17 Sept
Lillestrom
1 : 2 Torreense
12 Sept
Lillestrom
2 : 0 Valerenga
30 Aug
Lillestrom
1 : 4 Fredrikstad
27 Aug
Lillestrom
2 : 1 KF Egnatia
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Sogndal
(Away) 18 Oct
Egersund
3 : 3 Sogndal
14 Oct
Sogndal
0 : 1 Odds BK
11 Oct
Asane
2 : 1 Sogndal
20 Sept
Stabaek
2 : 1 Sogndal
16 Sept
Sotra
1 : 2 Sogndal
Page 1 of 6
18 Oct
Egersund
3 : 3 Sogndal
11 Oct
Asane
2 : 1 Sogndal
20 Sept
Stabaek
2 : 1 Sogndal
16 Sept
Sotra
1 : 2 Sogndal
05 Sept
Haugesund
2 : 0 Sogndal
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Baerum 4
Mjondalen 0
Aurskog/Finstadbru 0
Lillestrom 3
Froya 0
Sotra 6
Fjora 0
Sogndal 8
Tynset 0
Trygg/Lade 3
Midsund 0
Molde 11
Asker 7
Kvik Halden 0
Modum 0
Stromsgodset 6
Fram 1
Jerv 2
Vag 2
Egersund 5
Fana 1
Bjarg 3
Rosseland 0
Bryne 3
Volda 2
Brattvag 6
Tronder-Lyn 0
Kristiansund 5
Floro 2
Forde 4
Langevag 0
Aalesund 13
Froland 1
Arendal 5
Varhaug 2
Sandnes Ulf 3
Stalkam 2
Rana FK 3
Fauske Sprint 0
Bodo/Glimt 5
Askoy 1
Sandviken 2
Arna-Bjornar 0
Asane 1
Rollon 0
Traeff 7
Spjelkavik 1
Hodd 2
Strindheim 0
Levanger 8
Steinkjer 0
Ranheim 6
Melhus 0
Stjordals Blink 3
Eidsvold IF 1
Fredrikstad 7
Madla IL 3
Vidar 2
Brodd 1
Viking 3
Eik-Tonsberg 1
Honefoss 4
Ready 0
KFUM Oslo 4
Elverum 7
Ull/Kisa 6
Ridabu 0
Raufoss 4
Vindbjart 2
Flekkeroy 1
Flekkefjord 1
Start 2
Bossekop 1
Alta 2
Ulfstind 0
Tromso 5
Nord 0
Djerv 1919 4
V. Haugesund 3
Haugesund 4
Assiden 0
Notodden 4
Teie 0
Odds BK 10
Flint 2
Orn 0
Eidanger 0
Sandefjord 15
Uradd 0
Pors 3
Heming 0
Stabaek 2
Gjovik-Lyn 2
Eidsvold TF 7
Skreia 2
Kongsvinger 14
Harstad 0
Tromsdalen (TUIL) 1
Lillehammer 2
Strommen 4
Gamle Oslo 6
Drobak-Frogn 1
Grei 0
Lyn 4
Floya 5
Junkeren 3
Nationalkameratene 0
Rosenborg 9
Frigg 0
Kjelsas 4
Trysil 0
Ham-Kam 5
Lokomotiv Oslo 1
Grorud 5
Lorenskog 0
Moss 3
OS TF 2
Lysekloster 0
Fyllingen 0
Brann 4
Rade 1
Follo 2
Sparta Sarpsborg 0
Sarpsborg 08 2
Nordstrand 1
Skeid 4
Christiania BK 2
Valerenga 7
1/32-finals
Baerum 1
Lillestrom 5
Sotra 1
Sogndal 2
Trygg/Lade 0
Molde 5
Asker 1
Stromsgodset 4
Jerv 1
Egersund 2
Bjarg 1
Bryne 4
Brattvag 1
Kristiansund 2
Forde 3
Aalesund 4
Arendal 1
Sandnes Ulf 2
Rana FK 2
Bodo/Glimt 6
Sandviken 2
Asane 3
Traeff 0
Hodd 3
Levanger 0
Ranheim 2
Stjordals Blink 0
Fredrikstad 1
Madla IL 0
Viking 3
Honefoss 0
KFUM Oslo 2
Elverum 0
Raufoss 3
Vindbjart 2
Start 3
Alta 1
Tromso 2
Djerv 1919 0
Haugesund 4
Notodden 2
Odds BK 3
Flint 0
Sandefjord 1
Pors 2
Stabaek 1
Eidsvold TF 2
Kongsvinger 3
Tromsdalen (TUIL) 9
Strommen 1
Gamle Oslo 1
Lyn 3
Floya 1
Rosenborg 4
Kjelsas 0
Ham-Kam 2
Grorud 2
Moss 1
OS TF 1
Brann 2
Follo 0
Sarpsborg 08 2
Skeid 1
Valerenga 4
1/16-finals
Lillestrom -
Sogndal -
Molde -
Stromsgodset -
Egersund -
Bryne -
Kristiansund -
Aalesund -
Sandnes Ulf -
Bodo/Glimt -
Asane -
Hodd -
Ranheim -
Fredrikstad -
Viking -
KFUM Oslo -
Raufoss 1
Start 5
Tromso -
Haugesund -
Odds BK -
Sandefjord -
Pors -
Kongsvinger -
Tromsdalen (TUIL) -
Lyn -
Rosenborg -
Ham-Kam -
Grorud -
Brann -
Sarpsborg 08 -
Valerenga -
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Quarter-finals
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Semi-finals
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Final
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