Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Liverpool M. vs CA Cerro

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Belvedere, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

37'
Amaro J.
46'
Sub
Cambon A. In: Mederos R.
Out: Cambon A.
46'
Sub
Severo A. In: Leonardo P.
Out: Severo A.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Liverpool M. and CA Cerro finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Liverpool M..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Liverpool M.
30%
Draws
37%
CA Cerro
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: CA Cerro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Liverpool M. come out ahead of CA Cerro on wins alone.
  • 37% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Liverpool M. Clean Sheet 27%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Liverpool M. CA Cerro
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 9
Draws 10 6
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.24 0.82
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs CA Cerro
4:0
Jul 12, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs CA Cerro
1:2
Feb 20, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Liverpool M.
1:1
Aug 24, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Liverpool M.
2:1
May 25, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs CA Cerro
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Liverpool M. Compare

Top Goalscorer Garayalde N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Machado R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

CA Cerro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Liverpool M. 38 / 100
CA Cerro 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Liverpool M. CA Cerro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CA Cerro Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Liverpool M. scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

CA Cerro's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Liverpool M. stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Liverpool M. VS CA Cerro
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Liverpool M.

(Home)
14 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 1
Liverpool M.
06 Sept
Liverpool M.
1 : 0
Boston River
02 Sept
Liverpool M.
0 : 1
Boston River
30 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1
Liverpool M.
27 Aug
Fenix
0 : 2
Liverpool M.
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CA Cerro

(Away)
13 Sept
Progreso
1 : 3
CA Cerro
10 Sept
CA Cerro
0 : 2
Cerrito
06 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 0
Racing Montevideo
01 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 1
CA Cerro
29 Aug
Boston River
1 : 1
CA Cerro
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montevideo City 5 5 0 0 14:4 15
2 Liverpool M. 6 4 1 1 12:4 13
3 CA Cerro 6 4 1 1 8:7 13
4 Racing Montevideo 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
5 Penarol 5 3 1 1 9:3 9
6 Juventud 6 2 3 1 7:5 9
7 Maldonado 6 2 2 2 6:5 8
8 Boston River 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
9 Club Nacional 6 2 2 2 6:7 8
10 Wanderers 6 2 2 2 7:9 8
11 Progreso 6 2 0 4 3:7 6
12 Cerro Largo 6 0 5 1 5:6 5
13 Central Esp. 6 1 2 3 3:7 5
14 Defensor Sp. 6 1 2 3 4:10 5
15 Danubio 6 0 3 3 1:7 3
16 Albion 6 0 0 6 4:11 0
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)