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Liverpool M. vs CA Cerro - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Belvedere, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

37'
Amaro J.
46'
Sub
Cambon A. In: Mederos R.
Out: Cambon A.
46'
Sub
Severo A. In: Leonardo P.
Out: Severo A.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Liverpool M. and CA Cerro finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Liverpool M..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Liverpool M.
20%
Draws
19%
CA Cerro
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Liverpool M.

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Liverpool M. come out ahead of CA Cerro on wins alone.
  • 61% — that's where the model lands on Liverpool M. taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Liverpool M. Clean Sheet 68%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Liverpool M. CA Cerro
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 9
Draws 7 6
Losses 6 15
Goals Scored 1.38 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.66 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs CA Cerro
4:0
Jul 12, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs CA Cerro
1:2
Feb 20, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Liverpool M.
1:1
Aug 24, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Liverpool M.
2:1
May 25, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs CA Cerro
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Liverpool M. Compare

Top Goalscorer Garayalde N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Machado R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

CA Cerro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Liverpool M. 95 / 100
CA Cerro 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Liverpool M. CA Cerro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Liverpool M. Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CA Cerro has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Liverpool M. stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Liverpool M. found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Liverpool M. VS CA Cerro
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Liverpool M.

(Home)
01 Nov
Liverpool M.
2 : 0
Juventud
25 Oct
Club Nacional
0 : 1
Liverpool M.
21 Oct
Liverpool M.
1 : 0
Cerro Largo
18 Oct
Liverpool M.
1 : 0
Penarol
09 Oct
Maldonado
1 : 1
Liverpool M.
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CA Cerro

(Away)
31 Oct
CA Cerro
1 : 2
Central Esp.
25 Oct
Montevideo City
3 : 1
CA Cerro
16 Oct
CA Cerro
1 : 1
Cerro Largo
10 Oct
Defensor Sp.
2 : 3
CA Cerro
04 Oct
CA Cerro
0 : 2
Wanderers
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 13 9 3 1 22:8 30
2 Montevideo City 13 9 1 3 26:14 28
3 Club Nacional 13 8 2 3 19:13 26
4 Maldonado 13 6 4 3 18:10 22
5 Penarol 13 6 5 2 17:9 22
6 Racing Montevideo 13 5 4 4 18:14 19
7 Progreso 13 6 1 6 13:15 19
8 Juventud 13 4 6 3 12:10 18
9 CA Cerro 13 5 3 5 15:19 18
10 Wanderers 13 4 4 5 14:19 16
11 Boston River 13 4 3 6 15:17 15
12 Albion 13 4 1 8 15:20 13
13 Defensor Sp. 13 3 3 7 16:23 12
14 Danubio 13 2 4 7 7:15 10
15 Cerro Largo 13 1 6 6 10:17 9
16 Central Esp. 13 2 2 9 8:22 8
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)