Sport Picks

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Liverpool M. vs Club Nacional

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Belvedere
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Gomez M.
(Penalty)
28' Event
Bentancourt R.
(Penalty)
29'
Gomez M.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Liverpool M. and Club Nacional finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Club Nacional.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Liverpool M.
20%
Draws
38%
Club Nacional
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Liverpool M.

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Club Nacional come out ahead of Liverpool M. on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Liverpool M.'s way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Club Nacional have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Liverpool M. Clean Sheet 20%
Club Nacional Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Liverpool M. Club Nacional
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 13
Draws 9 4
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 0.75 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Club Nacional
1:3
Sep 20, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Liverpool M.
3:1
Mar 26, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Club Nacional
2:2
Sep 8, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Liverpool M.
1:0
Jun 15, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Liverpool M.
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Liverpool M. Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Club Nacional Compare

Top Goalscorer Veron T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Liverpool M. 42 / 100
Club Nacional 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Liverpool M. Club Nacional

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Liverpool M. scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Club Nacional conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Liverpool M. stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Liverpool M. VS Club Nacional
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Racing Montevideo1594223:1431
2Maldonado1592424:1629
3Albion1584326:1628
4Penarol1583423:1627
5Central Esp.1573523:2224
6Montevideo City1565422:1623
7Club Nacional1571726:2122
8Defensor Sp.1556413:1121
9Liverpool M.1555520:1820
10Wanderers1562716:2120
11Danubio1546517:2118
12Cerro Largo1552816:1917
13Boston River1552814:2017
14Juventud1543817:2215
15Progreso1524912:2310
16CA Cerro152498:2410