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Liverpool M. vs Progreso - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Belvedere, Montevideo
Liverpool M. Logo

Liverpool M.

3 - 2
FT
Progreso Logo

Progreso

Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Acosta L.
18'
Alvarez E.
35'
Lewis K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Liverpool M. in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Liverpool M..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Liverpool M.
15%
Draws
32%
Progreso
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Liverpool M.

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Liverpool M. lately — more wins on the board than Progreso.
  • Model gives Liverpool M. a 53% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Liverpool M. have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Liverpool M. Clean Sheet 20%
Progreso Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Liverpool M. Progreso
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 8
Draws 9 2
Losses 8 19
Goals Scored 1.38 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Progreso
3:2
Mar 31, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Liverpool M.
3:3
Oct 26, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Progreso
3:1
Apr 27, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Liverpool M.
0:2
Nov 3, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Progreso
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Liverpool M. Compare

Top Goalscorer Zabala D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Milano S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Progreso Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Silva G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Liverpool M. 67 / 100
Progreso 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Liverpool M. Progreso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Liverpool M. Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Progreso has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Liverpool M. scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Liverpool M. went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Liverpool M. VS Progreso
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Liverpool M.

(Home)
03 Oct
Liverpool M.
3 : 2
Progreso
27 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 2
Liverpool M.
23 Sept
Liverpool M.
3 : 0
Colon
20 Sept
Liverpool M.
0 : 0
Racing Montevideo
14 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 1
Liverpool M.
Page 1 of 6

Progreso

(Away)
03 Oct
Liverpool M.
3 : 2
Progreso
26 Sept
Progreso
2 : 1
Racing Montevideo
19 Sept
Boston River
1 : 2
Progreso
16 Sept
Progreso
0 : 1
Club Nacional
13 Sept
Progreso
1 : 3
CA Cerro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 9 6 2 1 17:7 20
2 Montevideo City 9 6 1 2 19:10 19
3 Penarol 9 6 2 1 15:6 19
4 Maldonado 9 5 2 2 13:5 17
5 Club Nacional 9 5 2 2 13:9 17
6 Wanderers 9 4 3 2 12:11 15
7 Juventud 9 3 5 1 10:6 14
8 CA Cerro 9 4 2 3 9:11 14
9 Racing Montevideo 9 3 3 3 9:8 12
10 Progreso 9 4 0 5 9:12 12
11 Boston River 9 2 3 4 10:12 9
12 Defensor Sp. 9 2 2 5 9:16 8
13 Danubio 9 1 4 4 4:10 7
14 Cerro Largo 9 0 5 4 6:12 5
15 Central Esp. 9 1 2 6 5:16 5
16 Albion 9 1 0 8 9:18 3
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)