Sport Picks

Italy

Serie C - Group B Stadio Armando Picchi

Gubbio

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Livorno play Gubbio in the Serie C - Group B. It looks like a close match. Recently, Livorno averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. Gubbio averaged 0.9 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. In past meetings, Livorno won 2, Gubbio won 0, and they drew 3. Their last match on Apr 3, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Livorno and 1.25 for Gubbio. This points to a Livorno double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%

Livorno

35%

Draws

31%

Gubbio

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Livorno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Livorno picked up more points recently compared to Gubbio.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 73%

Over 2.5 Goals 42%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%

Livorno Clean Sheet 19%

Gubbio Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 66%

Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Livorno	Gubbio
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	10	9
Draws	6	11
Losses	12	9
Goals Scored	1.25	0.9
Goals Conceded	1.43	0.93
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2026 Serie C - Group B

Livorno vs Gubbio

Possession: 52% - 41% Cards: 1 - 1

3:0

Nov 29, 2025 Serie C - Group B

Gubbio vs Livorno

Possession: 42% - 47% Cards: 1 - 4

0:0

Jul 28, 2019 Club Friendly

Gubbio vs Livorno

Possession: 49% - 51% Cards: 3 - 3

1:1

Mar 31, 2012 Serie B

Gubbio vs Livorno

Possession: 56% - 55% Cards: 1 - 1

1:2

Oct 29, 2011 Serie B

Livorno vs Gubbio

Possession: 40% - 44% Cards: 1 - 3

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Livorno Compare

Top Goalscorer Marchesi F.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Di Carmine S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Gubbio Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Livorno 34 / 100

Gubbio 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Livorno Gubbio

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Livorno or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +30.9%

3.85

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +16.8%

2.78

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Livorno attacking → ← attacking Gubbio

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Livorno scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Gubbio let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Livorno went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Gubbio lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 38

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arezzo	36	24	8	4	64:24	80
2	Ascoli	36	23	8	5	63:23	77
3	Ravenna	36	22	7	7	50:30	73
4	Campobasso	36	17	10	9	49:37	59
5	Juventus U23	36	14	11	11	46:43	53
6	Pianese	36	11	17	8	37:34	50
7	Pineto	36	13	11	12	42:45	50
8	Gubbio	36	11	15	10	31:32	48
9	Ternana	36	14	11	11	44:40	48
10	Vis Pesaro	36	11	13	12	38:36	46
11	Livorno	36	12	7	17	39:51	43
12	Forli FC	36	10	10	16	41:52	40
13	Carpi	36	10	10	16	35:48	40
14	Perugia	36	8	14	14	38:44	38
15	Guidonia 1937	36	8	14	14	30:36	38
16	Sambenedettese	36	8	13	15	30:37	37
17	Sassari Torres	36	6	18	12	32:45	36
18	Bra	36	6	14	16	37:54	32
19	US Pontedera	36	3	11	22	27:62	20
20	Rimini	0	0	0	0	0:0	0