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Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Jones T.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South game between Llantwit Major and Baglan Dragons finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Baglan Dragons.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Llantwit Major
20%
Draws
40%
Baglan Dragons
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Baglan Dragons haven't matched Llantwit Major's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Llantwit Major Clean Sheet 14%
Baglan Dragons Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Llantwit Major Baglan Dragons
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 8
Draws 8 6
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 1.35 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.94 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons
0:1
Jan 3, 2026 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons
0:0
Oct 4, 2025 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major
1:1
Sep 20, 2025 FAW Welsh Cup
Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons
2:0
Mar 8, 2025 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Llantwit Major Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Baglan Dragons Compare

Top Goalscorer Jones T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Llantwit Major 31 / 100
Baglan Dragons 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Llantwit Major Baglan Dragons

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Baglan Dragons Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Llantwit Major found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Baglan Dragons conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Llantwit Major remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

H2H data points to 1.20 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Llantwit Major VS Baglan Dragons
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Llantwit Major

(Home)
17 Oct
Trefelin
4 : 1
Llantwit Major
10 Oct
Llantwit Major
1 : 1
Pontardawe
06 Oct
Pontypridd United
4 : 1
Llantwit Major
02 Oct
Carmarthen Town
1 : 2
Llantwit Major
26 Sept
Llantwit Major
2 : 0
Llanelli
Page 1 of 7

Baglan Dragons

(Away)
17 Oct
Llantwit Fardre
1 : 3
Baglan Dragons
10 Oct
Baglan Dragons
1 : 1
Pontypridd United
02 Oct
Llanelli
1 : 2
Baglan Dragons
25 Sept
Baglan Dragons
1 : 2
Carmarthen Town
12 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 1
Baglan Dragons
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 9 6 3 0 30:11 21
2 Pontypridd United 10 6 2 2 24:17 20
3 Aberystwyth 9 6 1 2 22:9 19
4 Caerau Ely 10 6 1 3 22:18 19
5 Baglan Dragons 11 5 2 4 12:12 17
6 Ynyshir Albions 9 4 4 1 15:9 16
7 Carmarthen Town 10 4 3 3 22:21 15
8 Trethomas Bluebirds 10 3 4 3 20:18 13
9 Treowen 10 4 1 5 19:21 13
10 Afan Lido 11 3 3 5 18:22 12
11 Caerphilly 10 3 2 5 12:19 11
12 Pontardawe 9 3 1 5 15:17 10
13 Cardiff Draconians 8 2 3 3 11:14 9
14 Newport City 8 2 2 4 12:9 8
15 Llantwit Major 9 2 2 5 8:21 8
16 Llanelli 11 0 2 9 9:33 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)