Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
Llantwit Major in this FA Cup 2021/2022 tie, finishing 4-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
15%
85%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Risca United
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Risca United haven't matched Llantwit Major's recent run of results.
- Model gives Risca United a 85% chance of winning this.
- Llantwit Major have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Llantwit Major, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Llantwit Major have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Llantwit Major Clean Sheet 20%
Risca United Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Llantwit Major | Risca United |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 36 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 8 |
| Draws | 7 | 9 |
| Losses | 14 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.53 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.56 | 1.87 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.29 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 28, 2022 Cymru South
Risca United vs Llantwit Major
0:2
Sep 11, 2021 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Risca United
2:0
Aug 14, 2021 FAW Welsh Cup
Llantwit Major vs Risca United
4:0
Jul 17, 2021 League Cup
Llantwit Major vs Risca United
3:4
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Llantwit Major 12 / 100
Risca United 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Llantwit Major Risca United
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Risca United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Risca United has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.
Historical meetings average 3.75 goals per match.
Llantwit Major scored in 78% of their last 36 games.
Away concern: Risca United has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Llantwit Major VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Llantwit Major
(Home) 22 Aug
Aberystwyth
5 : 1 Llantwit Major
15 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 1 Baglan Dragons
07 Aug
Afan Lido
5 : 0 Llantwit Major
01 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 3 Pure Swansea
18 Apr
Llantwit Major
1 : 3 Cambrian United
Page 1 of 8
15 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 1 Baglan Dragons
01 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 3 Pure Swansea
18 Apr
Llantwit Major
1 : 3 Cambrian United
28 Mar
Llantwit Major
1 : 4 Caerau Ely
14 Mar
Llantwit Major
2 : 3 Ammanford Town
Page 1 of 4
Risca United
(Away) 21 Sept
Cardiff Corries
4 : 1 Risca United
08 Oct
Risca United
1 : 5 Penybont
16 Sept
Risca United
4 : 2 Aberbargoed Buds
30 Apr
Afan Lido
2 : 1 Risca United
18 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
3 : 3 Risca United
Page 1 of 6
21 Sept
Cardiff Corries
4 : 1 Risca United
30 Apr
Afan Lido
2 : 1 Risca United
18 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
3 : 3 Risca United
02 Apr
Port Talbot
0 : 1 Risca United
04 Mar
Llanelli
1 : 1 Risca United
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Penlan Club 0
Ynysygerwn 2
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Penybont -
TBD -
Undy 3
Chepstow Town 0
Llanuwchllyn 2
Denbigh 4
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Prestatyn -
TBD -
Caersws FC 2
Rhostyllen 3
Buckley 2
Mold Alexandra 1
Porthmadog 3
Llanberis FC 0
Monmouth 3
Cwmamman United 1
TBD -
Llanelli -
Goytre Utd -
TBD -
Abergavenny Town 1
Taffs Well 3
Pencoed 5
Treharris Athletic 0
Llantwit Major 4
Risca United 0
Llandudno FC 4
Llay Welfare 2
TBD -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
Haverfordwest -
TBD -
Caerau Ely 3
Brecon Corinthians 8
Bala -
TBD -
Brymbo 3
Llansantffraid Village 1
Pontypridd United -
TBD -
Penydarren 1
Cwmbran Celtic 0
Llanrhaeadr -
TBD -
Saltney Town 3
Felinheli 1
Penrhyncoch -
TBD -
Aberaeron 1
Ynyshir Albions 3
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
Porthcawl Town 0
Aber Valley 2
Cefn Druids -
TBD -
Holyhead 1
Rhos Aelwyd 0
Newtown -
TBD -
Llanelwy 2
Berriew FC 7
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
Cardiff Airport 2
Trethomas Bluebirds 3
Conwy Borough -
TBD -
Caergybi 1
Cefn Albion 4
TNS -
TBD -
Llanfairfechan Town 1
Llanrwst United 2
Pure Swansea -
TBD -
Caldicot 6
Penparcau FC 3
Llanidloes Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Bangor City -
Pontymister 1
Dinas Powys 2
Port Talbot 0
Afan Lido 6
Llandudno Albion 5
Llanerchymedd 1
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Ammanford Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Penrhiwceiber Rangers -
Flint Town -
TBD -
Llanfair United 2
Penrhyndeudraeth FC 3
Briton Ferry -
TBD -
Trefelin 8
Fairwater 1
Connahs Q. -
TBD -
Rhyl 1
Rhydymwyn 0
Holywell Town FC 2
Gresford 3
TBD -
Colwyn Bay -
Bodedern 5
Llandyrnog United 1
Llangefni 0
Ruthin Town 1
Pontyclun FC 0
Pontardawe 3
TBD -
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
Barry Town -
TBD -
Garden Village 2
Goytre AFC 3
1/32-finals
Ynysygerwn 1
Cambrian United 3
Penybont 7
Undy 0
Denbigh 0
Caernarfon 4
Prestatyn 6
Rhostyllen 0
Buckley 3
Porthmadog 1
Monmouth 3
Llanelli 0
Goytre Utd 0
Taffs Well 3
Pencoed 0
Llantwit Major 3
Llandudno FC 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 2
Haverfordwest 6
Brecon Corinthians 0
Bala 17
Brymbo 1
Pontypridd United 6
Penydarren 0
Llanrhaeadr 3
Saltney Town 5
Penrhyncoch 4
Ynyshir Albions 1
Aberystwyth 9
Aber Valley 0
Cefn Druids 1
Holyhead 0
Newtown 6
Berriew FC 1
Carmarthen Town 2
Trethomas Bluebirds 1
Conwy Borough 3
Cefn Albion 2
TNS 6
Llanrwst United 0
Pure Swansea 6
Caldicot 3
Llanidloes Town 1
Bangor City 4
Dinas Powys 2
Afan Lido 1
Llandudno Albion 3
Guilsfield 5
Ammanford Town 0
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 3
Flint Town 5
Penrhyndeudraeth FC 0
Briton Ferry 0
Trefelin 3
Connahs Q. 5
Rhyl 0
Gresford 1
Colwyn Bay 2
Bodedern 4
Ruthin Town 5
Pontardawe 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 1
Barry Town 2
Goytre AFC 0
1/16-finals
Cambrian United 1
Penybont 3
Caernarfon 3
Prestatyn 0
Buckley 2
Monmouth 0
Taffs Well 2
Llantwit Major 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 1
Haverfordwest 2
Bala 5
Pontypridd United 0
Saltney Town 2
Penrhyncoch 1
Aberystwyth 4
Cefn Druids 1
Newtown 1
Carmarthen Town 2
Conwy Borough 0
TNS 1
Pure Swansea 1
Bangor City 0
Dinas Powys 2
Guilsfield 4
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 1
Flint Town 3
Trefelin 0
Connahs Q. 4
Colwyn Bay 5
Ruthin Town 1
Cardiff Metropolitan University 3
Barry Town 0
1/8-finals
Penybont 1
Caernarfon 0
Buckley 0
Taffs Well 2
Haverfordwest 1
Bala 3
Saltney Town 0
Aberystwyth 1
Carmarthen Town 0
TNS 1
Pure Swansea 1
Guilsfield 2
Flint Town 0
Connahs Q. 2
Colwyn Bay 1
Cardiff Metropolitan University 0
Quarter-finals
Penybont 3
Taffs Well 2
Bala 2
Aberystwyth 1
TNS 2
Guilsfield 0
Connahs Q. 0
Colwyn Bay 2
Semi-finals
Penybont 1
Bala 0
TNS 1
Colwyn Bay 0
Final
Penybont 2
TNS 3
