Sport Picks
Llantwit Major vs Risca United
Wales
League Cup 2021/2022 
Match Events
21'
21'
Thomas L.
38'
38'
Jones J.
43'
43'
Jones J.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 3-4, with Risca United advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
15%
85%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Risca United
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Llantwit Major come out ahead of Risca United on wins alone.
- Model gives Risca United a 85% chance of winning this.
- Llantwit Major have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Llantwit Major, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Llantwit Major have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Llantwit Major Clean Sheet 20%
Risca United Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Llantwit Major | Risca United |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 34 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 8 |
| Draws | 7 | 9 |
| Losses | 14 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.35 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.65 | 1.87 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.29 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 28, 2022 Cymru South
Risca United vs Llantwit Major
0:2
Sep 11, 2021 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Risca United
2:0
Aug 14, 2021 FAW Welsh Cup
Llantwit Major vs Risca United
4:0
Jul 17, 2021 League Cup
Llantwit Major vs Risca United
3:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Llantwit Major Compare
Top Goalscorer Jones J.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65
Risca United Compare
Top Goalscorer Thomas L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Marsh T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Llantwit Major 12 / 100
Risca United 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Llantwit Major Risca United
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Risca United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Risca United has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.
Games between these two average 3.75 goals.
Llantwit Major's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 34 recent games.
Away concern: Risca United has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Llantwit Major VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Llantwit Major
(Home) 22 Aug
Aberystwyth
5 : 1 Llantwit Major
15 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 1 Baglan Dragons
07 Aug
Afan Lido
5 : 0 Llantwit Major
01 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 3 Pure Swansea
18 Apr
Llantwit Major
1 : 3 Cambrian United
Page 1 of 7
15 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 1 Baglan Dragons
01 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 3 Pure Swansea
18 Apr
Llantwit Major
1 : 3 Cambrian United
28 Mar
Llantwit Major
1 : 4 Caerau Ely
14 Mar
Llantwit Major
2 : 3 Ammanford Town
Page 1 of 4
Risca United
(Away) 21 Sept
Cardiff Corries
4 : 1 Risca United
08 Oct
Risca United
1 : 5 Penybont
16 Sept
Risca United
4 : 2 Aberbargoed Buds
30 Apr
Afan Lido
2 : 1 Risca United
18 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
3 : 3 Risca United
Page 1 of 6
21 Sept
Cardiff Corries
4 : 1 Risca United
30 Apr
Afan Lido
2 : 1 Risca United
18 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
3 : 3 Risca United
02 Apr
Port Talbot
0 : 1 Risca United
04 Mar
Llanelli
1 : 1 Risca United
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Llanidloes Town 2
Gresford 3
Bangor City 4
Holyhead 0
Flint Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Bala -
Cambrian United 4
Carmarthen Town 1
TBD -
Newtown -
Ruthin Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Llandudno FC 4
Denbigh 3
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
Airbus UK Broughton FC 2
Guilsfield 1
TBD -
Buckley -
Llangefni 1
Prestatyn 2
TBD -
Cefn Druids -
Conwy Borough -
TBD -
Holywell Town FC 2
Colwyn Bay 1
Haverfordwest -
TBD -
TBD -
Goytre Utd -
Undy -
TBD -
Port Talbot -
Pure Swansea -
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Ammanford Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
Barry Town -
TBD -
Llanelli 5
Newport 0
Trefelin 2
Taffs Well 0
Llantwit Major 3
Risca United 4
Llanrhaeadr 1
Penrhyncoch 4
TBD -
TNS -
Cwmbran Celtic 3
Afan Lido 0
Briton Ferry 2
Pontypridd United 3
1/16-finals
Gresford 0
Bangor City 1
Flint Town 1
Bala 2
Cambrian United 2
Newtown 4
Ruthin Town 0
Caernarfon 3
Llandudno FC 0
Connahs Q. 2
Airbus UK Broughton FC 3
Buckley 2
Prestatyn 3
Cefn Druids 0
Conwy Borough 1
Holywell Town FC 3
Haverfordwest 3
Goytre Utd 0
Undy 2
Pure Swansea 1
Aberystwyth 2
Penybont 1
Ammanford Town 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 4
Barry Town 5
Llanelli 0
Trefelin 2
Risca United 0
Penrhyncoch 2
TNS 1
Cwmbran Celtic 1
Pontypridd United 2
1/8-finals
Bangor City 0
Bala 1
Newtown 5
Caernarfon 0
Connahs Q. 6
Airbus UK Broughton FC 3
Prestatyn 3
Holywell Town FC 4
Haverfordwest 5
Undy 0
Aberystwyth 2
Cardiff Metropolitan University 5
Barry Town 3
Trefelin 0
Penrhyncoch 1
Pontypridd United 3
Quarter-finals
Bala 3
Newtown 1
Connahs Q. 4
Holywell Town FC 0
Haverfordwest 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Barry Town 7
Pontypridd United 1
Semi-finals
Bala 1
Connahs Q. 4
Cardiff Metropolitan University 3
Barry Town 2
Final
Connahs Q. 1
Cardiff Metropolitan University 0
