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Lleida vs CF Vilanova

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 5 2025/2026 Camp d'Esports, Lleida
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Marti Guma T.
88' Event
Frutos A.
90' Event
Olives G.

AI Match Summary

CF Vilanova in this Tercera RFEF - Group 5 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored CF Vilanova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Lleida
35%
Draws
45%
CF Vilanova
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: CF Vilanova

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to CF Vilanova lately — more wins on the board than Lleida.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Lleida Clean Sheet 20%
CF Vilanova Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lleida CF Vilanova
Matches Played 20 28
Wins 2 12
Draws 8 8
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 0.75 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.55 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 5
Lleida vs CF Vilanova
1:2
Jan 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 5
CF Vilanova vs Lleida
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lleida Compare

Top Goalscorer Marti Guma T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

CF Vilanova Compare

Top Goalscorer Frutos A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Olives G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lleida 36 / 100
CF Vilanova 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lleida CF Vilanova

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CF Vilanova Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Lleida found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (20 games).

CF Vilanova's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

Solid form: Lleida remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lleida VS CF Vilanova
0.25 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
25% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lleida

(Home)
10 May
Lleida
1 : 2
CF Vilanova
03 May
FC Lescala
4 : 1
Lleida
26 Apr
Lleida
1 : 1
Vilassar de Mar
19 Apr
Mollerussa
0 : 0
Lleida
12 Apr
Lleida
0 : 0
San Cristobal CP
Page 1 of 4

CF Vilanova

(Away)
26 Aug
Terrassa
0 : 0
CF Vilanova
12 Aug
CE Manresa
2 : 0
CF Vilanova
24 May
Cornella
1 : 2
CF Vilanova
17 May
CF Vilanova
0 : 1
Cornella
10 May
Lleida
1 : 2
CF Vilanova
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CE Manresa 34 19 9 6 55:32 66
2 CF Badalona 34 17 12 5 43:27 63
3 Cornella 34 17 9 8 50:36 60
4 CF Vilanova 34 15 11 8 38:27 56
5 L Hospitalet 34 16 7 11 55:39 55
6 FE Grama 34 14 12 8 49:35 54
7 FC Lescala 34 12 10 12 51:51 46
8 Peralada 34 11 13 10 45:39 46
9 UE Tona 34 10 15 9 35:31 45
10 CE Europa B 34 12 9 13 44:53 45
11 Montanesa 34 11 9 14 31:39 42
12 Mollerussa 34 9 13 12 39:43 40
13 Vilassar de Mar 34 9 11 14 36:38 38
14 San Cristobal CP 34 8 13 13 39:48 37
15 Cerdanyola del Valles 34 6 16 12 40:53 34
16 Can Vidalet 34 8 9 17 35:53 33
17 UE Vic 34 7 11 16 31:47 32
18 Lleida 34 4 13 17 21:46 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 5 2025/2026 (Play Offs)