Sport Picks

Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse

Lobos UPNFM

1 - 2

CD Choloma

Our Tip

Match Events

Castillo H.

21'

Chavez Y.

45'

Gutierrez C.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

CD Choloma in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored CD Choloma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Lobos UPNFM

40%

Draws

29%

CD Choloma

Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence

Lobos UPNFM have won more games recently than CD Choloma.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%

Lobos UPNFM Clean Sheet 10%

CD Choloma Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Lobos UPNFM	CD Choloma
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	8	7
Draws	10	6
Losses	12	17
Goals Scored	0.88	1.88
Goals Conceded	1.88	1.75
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.88	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Liga Nacional

Lobos UPNFM vs CD Choloma

Possession: 41% - 43% Cards: 1 - 2

1:2

Jan 29, 2026 Liga Nacional

CD Choloma vs Lobos UPNFM

Possession: 53% - 54% Cards: 4 - 2

1:1

Oct 15, 2025 Liga Nacional

CD Choloma vs Lobos UPNFM

Possession: 43% - 54% Cards: 1 - 4

5:1

Aug 4, 2025 Liga Nacional

Lobos UPNFM vs CD Choloma

Possession: 54% - 47% Cards: 3 - 3

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lobos UPNFM Compare

Top Goalscorer Gutierrez C.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

CD Choloma Compare

Top Goalscorer Chavez Y.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Anaya L.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.71

Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lobos UPNFM 30 / 100

CD Choloma 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Lobos UPNFM CD Choloma

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Choloma's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.75 goals.

Lobos UPNFM's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Lobos UPNFM has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lobos UPNFM VS CD Choloma

0.88 Goals Scored 1.88

1.88 Goals Conceded 1.75

88% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 75%

25% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Espana	20	11	7	2	37:25	40
2	Motagua	20	11	6	3	36:17	39
3	Olimpia	20	11	5	4	35:17	38
4	Olancho	20	8	8	4	28:16	32
5	Marathon	20	7	6	7	23:19	27
6	Genesis FC	20	6	5	9	20:28	23
7	CD Choloma	20	6	5	9	23:32	23
8	Platense	20	5	6	9	26:29	21
9	Lobos UPNFM	20	5	6	9	23:30	21
10	Juticalpa	20	4	6	10	18:41	18
11	Victoria	20	4	4	12	25:40	16