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Stadium Background

Lobos UPNFM vs CD Choloma

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse, Choluteca
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Suazo D.
16'
Lopez E.
24'
Sub
Calderon A. In: Obed Mejia Machado G.
Out: Calderon A.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional game between Lobos UPNFM and CD Choloma finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lobos UPNFM.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Lobos UPNFM
20%
Draws
40%
CD Choloma
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • CD Choloma carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Liga Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Lobos UPNFM Clean Sheet 20%
CD Choloma Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lobos UPNFM CD Choloma
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 7
Draws 9 6
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 0.97 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs CD Choloma
1:0
Mar 21, 2026 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs CD Choloma
1:2
Jan 29, 2026 Liga Nacional
CD Choloma vs Lobos UPNFM
1:1
Oct 15, 2025 Liga Nacional
CD Choloma vs Lobos UPNFM
5:1
Aug 4, 2025 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs CD Choloma
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lobos UPNFM Compare

Top Goalscorer Suazo D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

CD Choloma Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lobos UPNFM 32 / 100
CD Choloma 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lobos UPNFM CD Choloma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Choloma Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Lobos UPNFM's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

CD Choloma let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Difficult form: CD Choloma registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lobos UPNFM VS CD Choloma
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lobos UPNFM

(Home)
13 Sept
Lobos UPNFM
1 : 0
CD Choloma
06 Sept
Real Espana
2 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
29 Aug
Juticalpa
1 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
22 Aug
Motagua
4 : 1
Lobos UPNFM
15 Aug
Lobos UPNFM
2 : 2
Estrella
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CD Choloma

(Away)
13 Sept
Lobos UPNFM
1 : 0
CD Choloma
05 Sept
CD Choloma
0 : 0
Olancho
30 Aug
Real Espana
2 : 1
CD Choloma
23 Aug
CD Choloma
2 : 0
Platense
16 Aug
CD Choloma
0 : 1
Marathon
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 8 5 3 0 13:4 18
2 Olimpia 8 5 2 1 19:7 17
3 Marathon 8 5 2 1 14:6 17
4 Motagua 8 4 1 3 11:8 13
5 Genesis FC 8 3 2 3 10:6 11
6 Olancho 8 2 5 1 6:5 11
7 Estrella 8 2 3 3 13:16 9
8 Atletico Independiente 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
9 Lobos UPNFM 8 2 2 4 7:12 8
10 CD Choloma 8 2 1 5 6:8 7
11 Juticalpa 8 2 0 6 8:19 6
12 Platense 8 1 2 5 6:18 5
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Relegation - Liga Nacional (Relegation)