Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lobos UPNFM vs Estrella

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse, Choluteca
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Rodriguez M. In: Mejia C.
Out: Rodriguez M.
46'
Sub
Zuniga A. In: Rodas D.
Out: Zuniga A.
46'
Sub
Juan M. In: Carter D.
Out: Juan M.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga Nacional matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Lobos UPNFM
20%
Draws
36%
Estrella
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lobos UPNFM

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Estrella haven't matched Lobos UPNFM's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Lobos UPNFM Clean Sheet 68%
Estrella Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lobos UPNFM Estrella
Matches Played 31 8
Wins 8 2
Draws 9 3
Losses 14 3
Goals Scored 1 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.42 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Estrella
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lobos UPNFM Compare

Top Goalscorer Elvir S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Carter D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Estrella Compare

Top Goalscorer Rosales O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gomez E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lobos UPNFM 41 / 100
Estrella 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lobos UPNFM Estrella

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lobos UPNFM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estrella has conceded goals in 88% of their last 8 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Lobos UPNFM scored in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Recent resilience: Lobos UPNFM stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lobos UPNFM VS Estrella
0.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Lobos UPNFM

(Home)
18 Sept
Platense
0 : 2
Lobos UPNFM
13 Sept
Lobos UPNFM
1 : 0
CD Choloma
06 Sept
Real Espana
2 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
29 Aug
Juticalpa
1 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
22 Aug
Motagua
4 : 1
Lobos UPNFM
Page 1 of 7

Estrella

(Away)
19 Sept
CD Choloma
2 : 0
Estrella
12 Sept
Estrella
2 : 2
Platense
06 Sept
Marathon
5 : 0
Estrella
30 Aug
Estrella
2 : 2
Olimpia
22 Aug
Estrella
5 : 2
Juticalpa
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 8 5 3 0 13:4 18
2 Olimpia 8 5 2 1 19:7 17
3 Marathon 8 5 2 1 14:6 17
4 Motagua 8 4 1 3 11:8 13
5 Genesis FC 8 3 2 3 10:6 11
6 Olancho 8 2 5 1 6:5 11
7 Estrella 8 2 3 3 13:16 9
8 Atletico Independiente 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
9 Lobos UPNFM 8 2 2 4 7:12 8
10 CD Choloma 8 2 1 5 6:8 7
11 Juticalpa 8 2 0 6 8:19 6
12 Platense 8 1 2 5 6:18 5
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Relegation - Liga Nacional (Relegation)