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Lobos UPNFM vs Juticalpa Prediction & H2H Stats

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse, Choluteca
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Herrlein L.
11' Event
Villafranca J.
16'
Lopez L.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional 2025/2026 game between Lobos UPNFM and Juticalpa finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lobos UPNFM.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Lobos UPNFM
15%
Draws
42%
Juticalpa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lobos UPNFM

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Lobos UPNFM carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Lobos UPNFM a 43% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Lobos UPNFM Clean Sheet 19%
Juticalpa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lobos UPNFM Juticalpa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 6
Draws 9 7
Losses 14 17
Goals Scored 1 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.47 2.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Liga Nacional
Juticalpa vs Lobos UPNFM
1:0
Apr 27, 2026 Liga Nacional
Juticalpa vs Lobos UPNFM
1:0
Mar 9, 2026 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Juticalpa
3:2
Nov 22, 2025 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Juticalpa
1:0
Aug 31, 2025 Liga Nacional
Juticalpa vs Lobos UPNFM
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lobos UPNFM Compare

Top Goalscorer Rochez J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pena K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Juticalpa Compare

Top Goalscorer Villafranca J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lacayo J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lobos UPNFM 49 / 100
Juticalpa 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lobos UPNFM Juticalpa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lobos UPNFM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Juticalpa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Lobos UPNFM scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Juticalpa has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lobos UPNFM VS Juticalpa
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lobos UPNFM

(Home)
18 Sept
Platense
0 : 2
Lobos UPNFM
13 Sept
Lobos UPNFM
1 : 0
CD Choloma
06 Sept
Real Espana
2 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
29 Aug
Juticalpa
1 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
22 Aug
Motagua
4 : 1
Lobos UPNFM
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Juticalpa

(Away)
21 Sept
Juticalpa
3 : 2
Marathon
14 Sept
Atletico Independiente
2 : 1
Juticalpa
07 Sept
Juticalpa
0 : 3
Genesis FC
29 Aug
Juticalpa
1 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
22 Aug
Estrella
5 : 2
Juticalpa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 20 11 7 2 37:25 40
2 Motagua 20 11 6 3 36:17 39
3 Olimpia 20 11 5 4 35:17 38
4 Olancho 20 8 8 4 28:16 32
5 Marathon 20 7 6 7 23:19 27
6 Genesis FC 20 6 5 9 20:28 23
7 CD Choloma 20 6 5 9 23:32 23
8 Platense 20 5 6 9 26:29 21
9 Lobos UPNFM 20 5 6 9 23:30 21
10 Juticalpa 20 4 6 10 18:41 18
11 Victoria 20 4 4 12 25:40 16
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Triangulares)