Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lobos UPNFM vs Olancho

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse, Choluteca
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Cabrera Y. A.
22'
Gutierrez C.
30'
Garcia J.

AI Match Summary

Lobos UPNFM in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lobos UPNFM.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Lobos UPNFM
35%
Draws
26%
Olancho
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lobos UPNFM

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

26% / Low Confidence
  • Olancho have won more games recently than Lobos UPNFM.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Lobos UPNFM Clean Sheet 18%
Olancho Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lobos UPNFM Olancho
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 11
Draws 9 13
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 1 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.47 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Olancho
1:1
Mar 24, 2026 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Olancho
2:1
Feb 2, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olancho vs Lobos UPNFM
1:1
Nov 8, 2025 Liga Nacional
Olancho vs Lobos UPNFM
1:1
Sep 10, 2025 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Olancho
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lobos UPNFM Compare

Top Goalscorer Pena K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Olancho Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabrera Y. A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lobos UPNFM 36 / 100
Olancho 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lobos UPNFM Olancho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Olancho Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lobos UPNFM found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Olancho has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Lobos UPNFM went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lobos UPNFM VS Olancho
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lobos UPNFM

(Home)
18 Sept
Platense
0 : 2
Lobos UPNFM
13 Sept
Lobos UPNFM
1 : 0
CD Choloma
06 Sept
Real Espana
2 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
29 Aug
Juticalpa
1 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
22 Aug
Motagua
4 : 1
Lobos UPNFM
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Olancho

(Away)
19 Sept
Genesis FC
0 : 0
Olancho
12 Sept
Olancho
1 : 1
Real Espana
05 Sept
CD Choloma
0 : 0
Olancho
30 Aug
Motagua
2 : 1
Olancho
23 Aug
Olancho
1 : 1
Olimpia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 20 11 7 2 37:25 40
2 Motagua 20 11 6 3 36:17 39
3 Olimpia 20 11 5 4 35:17 38
4 Olancho 20 8 8 4 28:16 32
5 Marathon 20 7 6 7 23:19 27
6 Genesis FC 20 6 5 9 20:28 23
7 CD Choloma 20 6 5 9 23:32 23
8 Platense 20 5 6 9 26:29 21
9 Lobos UPNFM 20 5 6 9 23:30 21
10 Juticalpa 20 4 6 10 18:41 18
11 Victoria 20 4 4 12 25:40 16
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Triangulares)