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Logan Lightning vs Holland Park Hawks

Australia Australia

Queensland Premier League Cornubia Park
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
McAuley C.
33' Event
McAuley C.
(Penalty)
50' Event
Caspanello J.

AI Match Summary

The Queensland Premier League game between Logan Lightning and Holland Park Hawks finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Holland Park Hawks.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Logan Lightning
33%
Draws
27%
Holland Park Hawks
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Logan Lightning

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Logan Lightning come out ahead of Holland Park Hawks on wins alone.
  • Model gives Logan Lightning a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Queensland Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Logan Lightning Clean Sheet 14%
Holland Park Hawks Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Logan Lightning Holland Park Hawks
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 13 12
Draws 4 4
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 2 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.5 2.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 23, 2026 Queensland Premier League
Logan Lightning vs Holland Park Hawks
2:3
Feb 20, 2026 Queensland Premier League
Holland Park Hawks vs Logan Lightning
2:0
Jul 4, 2025 Queensland Premier League
Logan Lightning vs Holland Park Hawks
0:1
May 27, 2025 Queensland Premier League
Holland Park Hawks vs Logan Lightning
1:2
Sep 5, 2020 Queensland Premier League
Holland Park Hawks vs Logan Lightning
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Logan Lightning Compare

Top Goalscorer Caspanello J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lee F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Holland Park Hawks Compare

Top Goalscorer McAuley C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Park J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Logan Lightning 39 / 100
Holland Park Hawks 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Logan Lightning Holland Park Hawks

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LOG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Logan Lightning scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Holland Park Hawks let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Logan Lightning remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Logan Lightning VS Holland Park Hawks
2 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Broadbeach Utd.18144047:1646
2Brisbane Strikers18143144:1445
3Sunshine Coast Wanderers1885536:2429
4Robina City1884630:2028
5Ipswich1884629:2728
6Caboolture1883735:3127
7Redlands1874735:3225
8Holland Park Hawks1873829:3324
9Logan Lightning1872933:3523
10North Star18331216:3712
11St. George Willawong18311410:4110
12Capalaba FC18221417:518