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Logan Lightning vs Holland Park Hawks

Australia Australia

Queensland Premier League Cornubia Park, Logan
Logan Lightning Logo

Logan Lightning

2 - 3
FT
Holland Park Hawks Logo

Holland Park Hawks

Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
McAuley C.
33' Event
McAuley C.
(Penalty)
50' Event
Caspanello J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Queensland Premier League game between Logan Lightning and Holland Park Hawks finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Holland Park Hawks.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Logan Lightning
20%
Draws
40%
Holland Park Hawks
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Holland Park Hawks come out ahead of Logan Lightning on wins alone.
  • Model gives Logan Lightning a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Queensland Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Logan Lightning Clean Sheet 15%
Holland Park Hawks Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Logan Lightning Holland Park Hawks
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 14
Draws 5 4
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.63 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.8 1.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 23, 2026 Queensland Premier League
Logan Lightning vs Holland Park Hawks
2:3
Feb 20, 2026 Queensland Premier League
Holland Park Hawks vs Logan Lightning
2:0
Jul 4, 2025 Queensland Premier League
Logan Lightning vs Holland Park Hawks
0:1
May 27, 2025 Queensland Premier League
Holland Park Hawks vs Logan Lightning
1:2
Sep 5, 2020 Queensland Premier League
Holland Park Hawks vs Logan Lightning
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Logan Lightning Compare

Top Goalscorer Caspanello J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lee F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Holland Park Hawks Compare

Top Goalscorer McAuley C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Park J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Logan Lightning 57 / 100
Holland Park Hawks 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Logan Lightning Holland Park Hawks

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Logan Lightning Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Holland Park Hawks let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Logan Lightning scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Logan Lightning remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Logan Lightning VS Holland Park Hawks
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
2 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Logan Lightning

(Home)
15 Aug
Redlands
2 : 0
Logan Lightning
09 Aug
Logan Lightning
4 : 1
St. George Willawong
31 Jul
Broadbeach Utd.
1 : 0
Logan Lightning
18 Jul
Logan Lightning
2 : 2
Sunshine Coast Wanderers
11 Jul
Logan Lightning
3 : 2
Ipswich
Page 1 of 6

Holland Park Hawks

(Away)
15 Aug
Holland Park Hawks
3 : 2
Brisbane Strikers
09 Aug
Caboolture
7 : 2
Holland Park Hawks
01 Aug
Holland Park Hawks
6 : 3
Robina City
19 Jul
Capalaba FC
3 : 0
Holland Park Hawks
10 Jul
Holland Park Hawks
0 : 0
North Star
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brisbane Strikers 22 17 3 2 52:18 54
2 Broadbeach Utd. 22 16 4 2 51:20 52
3 Sunshine Coast Wanderers 22 10 7 5 46:28 37
4 Ipswich 22 10 5 7 35:30 35
5 Robina City 22 9 5 8 36:29 32
6 Caboolture 22 9 4 9 45:38 31
7 Redlands 22 8 6 8 40:38 30
8 Holland Park Hawks 22 9 3 10 40:48 30
9 Logan Lightning 22 8 3 11 39:41 27
10 North Star 22 6 3 13 22:41 21
11 St. George Willawong 22 4 1 17 13:52 13
12 Capalaba FC 22 3 2 17 21:57 11
Promotion - Queensland Premier League (Play Offs)