Sport Picks
Logan Lightning vs St. George Willawong
Australia
Queensland Premier League Cornubia Park, Logan 
Match Events
19'
19'
Dmitrovic S.
36'
36'
Carre J.
39'
39'
Lee F.
AI Match Summary
The Queensland Premier League game between Logan Lightning and St. George Willawong finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Logan Lightning.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
46%
15%
39%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Logan Lightning
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Logan Lightning come out ahead of St. George Willawong on wins alone.
- Logan Lightning are the model's pick here, at 70%.
- Regular Queensland Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Logan Lightning Clean Sheet 17%
St. George Willawong Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Logan Lightning | St. George Willawong |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 6 |
| Draws | 5 | 4 |
| Losses | 13 | 19 |
| Goals Scored | 1.69 | 0.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.79 | 2.21 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 9, 2026 Queensland Premier League
Logan Lightning vs St. George Willawong
4:1
May 10, 2026 Queensland Premier League
St. George Willawong vs Logan Lightning
0:2
Aug 31, 2024 Queensland Premier League
St. George Willawong vs Logan Lightning
2:1
Jun 16, 2024 Queensland Premier League
St. George Willawong vs Logan Lightning
3:1
Mar 16, 2024 Queensland Premier League
Logan Lightning vs St. George Willawong
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Logan Lightning Compare
Top Goalscorer Carre J.
2 Goals Assists Leader Lee F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
St. George Willawong Compare
Top Goalscorer Dmitrovic S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Logan Lightning 66 / 100
St. George Willawong 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Logan Lightning St. George Willawong
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Logan Lightning Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
St. George Willawong's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.
H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.
Logan Lightning scored in 76% of their last 29 games.
Logan Lightning went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Logan Lightning VS St. George Willawong
2 Goals Scored 0.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
75% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Logan Lightning
(Home) 09 Aug
Logan Lightning
4 : 1 St. George Willawong
31 Jul
Broadbeach Utd.
1 : 0 Logan Lightning
18 Jul
Logan Lightning
2 : 2 Sunshine Coast Wanderers
11 Jul
Logan Lightning
3 : 2 Ipswich
04 Jul
Brisbane Strikers
3 : 2 Logan Lightning
Page 1 of 6
09 Aug
Logan Lightning
4 : 1 St. George Willawong
18 Jul
Logan Lightning
2 : 2 Sunshine Coast Wanderers
11 Jul
Logan Lightning
3 : 2 Ipswich
30 Jun
Logan Lightning
5 : 1 Redlands
27 Jun
Logan Lightning
1 : 3 Caboolture
Page 1 of 4
St. George Willawong
(Away) 09 Aug
Logan Lightning
4 : 1 St. George Willawong
02 Aug
St. George Willawong
0 : 1 Brisbane Strikers
18 Jul
St. George Willawong
1 : 0 Caboolture
11 Jul
St. George Willawong
0 : 2 Robina City
04 Jul
Capalaba FC
0 : 2 St. George Willawong
Page 1 of 6
09 Aug
Logan Lightning
4 : 1 St. George Willawong
04 Jul
Capalaba FC
0 : 2 St. George Willawong
19 Jun
Holland Park Hawks
2 : 1 St. George Willawong
13 Jun
Broadbeach Utd.
4 : 1 St. George Willawong
03 Jun
Sunshine Coast Wanderers
8 : 0 St. George Willawong
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 52:18 | 54 |
| 2 | Broadbeach Utd. | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 51:20 | 52 |
| 3 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 46:28 | 37 |
| 4 | Ipswich | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35:30 | 35 |
| 5 | Robina City | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 36:29 | 32 |
| 6 | Caboolture | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 45:38 | 31 |
| 7 | Redlands | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 40:38 | 30 |
| 8 | Holland Park Hawks | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 40:48 | 30 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 39:41 | 27 |
| 10 | North Star | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 22:41 | 21 |
| 11 | St. George Willawong | 22 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 13:52 | 13 |
| 12 | Capalaba FC | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 21:57 | 11 |
Promotion - Queensland Premier League (Play Offs)
