Sport Picks
Match Events
16'
16'
Itu C.
29'
29'
Sub
Vutov A. In: Idowu D.
Out: Vutov A.
46'
46'
Sub
Kabov A. In: Karagaren B.
Out: Kabov A.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-1. The second leg ended 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Arda
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Arda come out ahead of Lok. Plovdiv on wins alone.
- Arda are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Arda arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Lok. Plovdiv, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Lok. Plovdiv Clean Sheet 18%
Arda Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lok. Plovdiv | Arda |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 13 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 14 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 0.9 | 1.23 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.56 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 24, 2026 efbet League
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
0:1
Jul 4, 2026 Club Friendly
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
2:0
May 16, 2026 efbet League
Arda vs Lok. Plovdiv
4:0
May 8, 2026 efbet League
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
2:0
Apr 30, 2026 Bulgarian Cup
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lok. Plovdiv Compare
Top Goalscorer Itu C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28
Arda Compare
Top Goalscorer Kotev L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lok. Plovdiv 23 / 100
Arda 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lok. Plovdiv Arda
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Arda Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Arda let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.
Attacking prowess: Lok. Plovdiv scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.
Lok. Plovdiv has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Lok. Plovdiv VS Arda
0.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Lok. Plovdiv
(Home) 20 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 1 CSKA Sofia
13 Sept
Botev Plovdiv
2 : 0 Lok. Plovdiv
06 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 0 Cherno More
28 Aug
CSKA 1948 Sofia
2 : 0 Lok. Plovdiv
24 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv
0 : 1 Arda
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 1 CSKA Sofia
06 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 0 Cherno More
24 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv
0 : 1 Arda
16 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 2 Dunav Ruse
26 Jul
Lok. Plovdiv
2 : 1 Septemvri Sofia
Page 1 of 3
Arda
(Away) 19 Sept
Arda
1 : 1 Cherno More
12 Sept
CSKA Sofia
4 : 1 Arda
04 Sept
Arda
2 : 3 Botev Plovdiv
31 Aug
Arda
2 : 0 Botev Vratsa
24 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv
0 : 1 Arda
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
CSKA Sofia
4 : 1 Arda
24 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv
0 : 1 Arda
08 Aug
Dunav Ruse
0 : 2 Arda
31 Jul
CSKA 1948 Sofia
2 : 1 Arda
18 Jul
Septemvri Sofia
1 : 1 Arda
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Bdin Vidin 2
Etar 1
TBD -
Dobrudzha -
Zagorets -
TBD -
TBD -
Botev Vratsa -
Partizan Cerven Brjag 0
Minyor Pernik 2
TBD -
Cherno More -
Germaneya 0
Fratria 4
TBD -
Arda -
Benkovski 0
Dunav Ruse 4
TBD -
Lok. Plovdiv -
Septemvri Tervel 0
Marek 3
TBD -
Montana -
Yambol 1915 2
Vihren 1
TBD -
Spartak Varna -
OFC Haskovo 0
Spartak Pleven 4
TBD -
Botev Plovdiv -
Botev Novi Pazar 1
Svoge 4
TBD -
Septemvri Sofia -
FC Lovech 0
Chernomorets 1919 5
TBD -
Ludogorets -
Pernik 1
Hebar 8
TBD -
Levski Sofia -
Bistritsa 2
Gorna 1
TBD -
Beroe -
Chernolomets 2
Sevlievo 4
TBD -
CSKA Sofia -
Rilski Sportist 2
Belasitsa Petrich 1
TBD -
Lok. Sofia -
Spartak Plovdiv 2
Pirin Blagoevgrad 1
TBD -
Slavia Sofia -
Kom Berkovitsa 0
Yantra Gabrovo 1
TBD -
CSKA 1948 Sofia -
1/16-finals
Bdin Vidin 2
Dobrudzha 7
Zagorets 1
Botev Vratsa 4
Minyor Pernik 0
Cherno More 3
Fratria 1
Arda 2
Dunav Ruse 1
Lok. Plovdiv 2
Marek 1
Montana 4
Yambol 1915 1
Spartak Varna 3
Spartak Pleven 0
Botev Plovdiv 4
Svoge 0
Septemvri Sofia 2
Chernomorets 1919 2
Ludogorets 3
Hebar 0
Levski Sofia 3
Bistritsa 1
Beroe 0
Sevlievo 1
CSKA Sofia 2
Rilski Sportist 2
Lok. Sofia 3
Spartak Plovdiv 1
Slavia Sofia 2
Yantra Gabrovo 0
CSKA 1948 Sofia 4
1/8-finals
Dobrudzha 0
Botev Vratsa 1
Cherno More 0
Arda 3
Lok. Plovdiv 4
Montana 0
Spartak Varna 0
Botev Plovdiv 2
Septemvri Sofia 1
Ludogorets 3
Levski Sofia 3
Bistritsa 0
CSKA Sofia 2
Lok. Sofia 1
Slavia Sofia 2
CSKA 1948 Sofia 3
Quarter-finals
Botev Vratsa 2
Arda 3
Lok. Plovdiv 1
Botev Plovdiv 0
Ludogorets 1
Levski Sofia 0
CSKA Sofia 2
CSKA 1948 Sofia 0
Semi-finals
Arda 1
Lok. Plovdiv 5
Ludogorets 1
CSKA Sofia 2
Final
Lok. Plovdiv 1
CSKA Sofia 2
