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Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Lamy J.
20'
Yankov D.
40'
Popov V.

AI Match Summary

Arda in this efbet League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Lok. Plovdiv
15%
Draws
64%
Arda
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Lok. Plovdiv haven't matched Arda's recent run of results.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on Arda taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Lok. Plovdiv Clean Sheet 18%
Arda Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lok. Plovdiv Arda
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 13
Draws 5 5
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 0.93 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 24, 2026 efbet League
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
0:1
Jul 4, 2026 Club Friendly
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
2:0
May 16, 2026 efbet League
Arda vs Lok. Plovdiv
4:0
May 8, 2026 efbet League
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
2:0
Apr 30, 2026 Bulgarian Cup
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lok. Plovdiv Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Arda Compare

Top Goalscorer Yankov D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lok. Plovdiv 15 / 100
Arda 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lok. Plovdiv Arda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arda Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arda's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Lok. Plovdiv scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Lok. Plovdiv remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lok. Plovdiv VS Arda
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lok. Plovdiv

(Home)
06 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 0
Cherno More
28 Aug
CSKA 1948 Sofia
2 : 0
Lok. Plovdiv
24 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv
0 : 1
Arda
16 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 2
Dunav Ruse
07 Aug
Levski Sofia
2 : 0
Lok. Plovdiv
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Arda

(Away)
12 Sept
CSKA Sofia
4 : 1
Arda
04 Sept
Arda
2 : 3
Botev Plovdiv
31 Aug
Arda
2 : 0
Botev Vratsa
24 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv
0 : 1
Arda
17 Aug
Arda
3 : 1
Lok. Sofia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levski Sofia 8 8 0 0 21:4 24
2 CSKA Sofia 8 6 2 0 21:6 20
3 Ludogorets 8 6 2 0 14:6 20
4 CSKA 1948 Sofia 9 6 1 2 17:9 19
5 Arda 9 5 1 3 14:11 16
6 Slavia Sofia 8 2 4 2 8:6 10
7 Botev Plovdiv 8 3 1 4 11:14 10
8 Spartak Varna 8 2 3 3 10:14 9
9 Septemvri Sofia 8 2 2 4 7:13 8
10 Botev Vratsa 8 2 1 5 7:17 7
11 Lok. Plovdiv 8 2 0 6 4:10 6
12 Cherno More 9 1 2 6 10:19 5
13 Lok. Sofia 8 0 4 4 10:16 4
14 Dunav Ruse 9 1 1 7 8:17 4
Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)
Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)
Relegation - efbet League (Relegation Group)